Increasing Causal Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the Future Carbon Cycle of Terrestrial Ecosystems

Le, Thanh; Ha, Kyung‐Ja; Bae, Deg‐Hyo

doi:10.1029/2021gl095804

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 81 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The methods used in this work are based on a multivariate predictive model 24 , 54 to assess the null hypothesis of no Granger causality between ENSO and LAI. Our approach uses the p -value or probability value as a metric to estimate the likelihood for no causal effects of ENSO on LAI.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There are broad effects of vegetation changes on regional climate, carbon budget, the water cycle, and ecosystems’ productivity. Therefore, further knowledge of the drivers of future vegetation changes is critical to mitigate the influences of global warming. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of interannual climate variability and is likely to affect vegetation on the global scale. Nonetheless, little is known about the causal impacts of ENSO on future vegetation cover with changes in land use and a warming environment. Here, we examined the connections between ENSO and vegetation using leaf area index (LAI) data over the period 2015–2100 from Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our findings indicate that, compared with the historical period 1915–2000, the vegetated areas influenced by ENSO are projected to rise by approximately 55.2% and 20.7% during the twenty-first century of the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Though uncertainty for the causal link between ENSO and vegetation changes remains in several regions (i.e., parts of North America, southern Australia, and western Asia), ENSO signature on LAI variations is robust over northern Australia, Amazonia, and parts of Southeast Asia. These results indicate that the influences of ENSO on global vegetation may strengthen in the future.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…2 for ET0, AAI, and VPD dominance). Major climate modes (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation) also modulate the occurrence of these weather anomalies [29][30][31][32][33] and as such play an important role in governing global patterns of wildfire activities 32,34,35 . The positive top-down dominance in the rainforests is supported by studies showing that here wildfires are limited to the time window when fuels are dry enough to burn 36,37 , see Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Spatial Pattern Of Dominant Precursors For Wildfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales

Qu,

Miralles,

Veraverbeke

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down precursors dominate in the tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests. The bottom-up precursors dominate in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs. Our study identifies areas where wildfires are governed by fuel conditions and hence where fuel management practices may be more effective. Moreover, our study also highlights that top-down and bottom-up precursors show complementary wildfire predictability across timescales. Seasonal or interannual predictions are feasible in regions where bottom-up precursors dominate.

show abstract

“…Local studies have used ground data and permanent plots to assess plant functional traits, and changes in floristic biodiversity in regions affected by ENSO (González‐M et al., 2021; Muenchow et al., 2013; Muenchow et al., 2020). Regional and global analyses have assessed changes on vegetation productivity and photosynthesis (Bastos et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2017; Luo et al., 2018; Patra et al., 2017) and teleconnections between gross primary productivity (GPP) and ENSO (Le et al., 2021). Specifically, for tropical South America, research has focused extensively on productivity in the Amazon biome.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Patterns of Vegetation Activity Related to ENSO in Northern South America

Estupinan‐Suarez,

Mahecha,

Brenning

et al. 2024

JGR Biogeosciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Interannual variability of vegetation activity (i.e., photosynthesis) is strongly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Globally, a reduction in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems has been observed during the ENSO warm phase (El Niño) and the opposite during the cold phase (La Niña). However, this global perspective obscures the heterogeneous impacts of ENSO at regional scales. Particularly, ENSO has contrasting impacts on climate in northern South America (NSA) depending on the ENSO phase and geographical location, which in turn affect the activity of vegetation. Furthermore, changes of vegetation activity during multiple ENSO events are not well understood yet. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal differences in vegetation activity associated with ENSO variability and its three phases (El Niño, La Niña, Neutral) to identify hotspots of ENSO impacts in NSA, a region dominated by rainforest and savannas. To achieve this, we investigated time series of vegetation variables from 2001 to 2014 at moderate spatial resolution (0.0083°). Data were aggregated through dimensionality reduction analysis (i.e., Global Principal Component Analysis). The leading principal component served as a proxy of vegetation activity (VAC). We calculated the cross‐correlation between VAC and the multivariate ENSO index separately for each ENSO phase. Our results show that El Niño phase has a stronger impact on vegetation activity both in intensity and duration than La Niña phase. Moreover, seasonally dry ecoregions were more susceptible to El Niño impacts on vegetation activity. Understanding these differences is key for regional adaptation and differentiated management of ecosystems.

show abstract

Increasing Causal Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the Future Carbon Cycle of Terrestrial Ecosystems

Abstract: In particular, the response of the carbon cycle to global warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 contributes to the uncertainties of future projections of regional climate change and impacts on ecosystems (

Cited by 7 publications

References 81 publications

Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales

Spatial Patterns of Vegetation Activity Related to ENSO in Northern South America

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About