Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Jackson, Robert B.; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Poulter, Benjamin; Stavert, Ann R.; Bergamaschi, P.; Niwa, Yosuke; Segers, Arjo; Tsuruta, Aki

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2

Cited by 266 publications

(191 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…For example, bubble plumes of CH 4 from the seabed have been observed in the water column, but not detected in the Arctic atmosphere (Fisher et al, 2011;Westbrook et al, 2009). There are several barriers preventing methane from being expelled to the atmosphere (James et al, 2016). From below the seafloor to the sea surface, gas hydrates and permafrost serve as a barrier to fluid and gas migration towards the seafloor; microbial activity around the seafloor can strongly oxidize methane releases or production; further oxidation occurs in the water column; the oceanic pycnocline acts as a physical barrier towards the surface waters, including efficient dissolution of bubbles; and finally, surface oceans are aerobic and contribute to the oxidation of dissolved methane.…”

Section: Oceanic Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Saunois

Stavert

Poulter

et al. 2020

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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1,337

1,101

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Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project.

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Section: Oceanic Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Saunois

Stavert

Poulter

et al. 2020

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

Self Cite

1,337

1,101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Enteric fermentation and manure from herds of livestock account for 115 Tg (115 Mt) of annual global methane emissions, about 30% of total anthropogenic emissions [Saunois et al, 2020;Jackson et al, 2020]. In our model, there is a straight-line reduction of methane emissions totaling 100 Mt relative to the RCP 8.5 baseline over the period 2020 to 2050.…”

Section: Reduction Of Livestockmentioning

confidence: 91%

The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers

Kleinberg¹

2020

Preprint

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The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is widely used to compare the climate change effects of various greenhouse gases. Although GWP has an established role in international climate agreements, GWP does not describe any specific identifiable impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate. It is argued here that GWP is unphysical, unintuitive, arbitrary, ignores the time dependence of emission sources, and is in some cases misleading. Therefore it has no place in describing the effects of climate change mitigation strategies beyond a 20 year horizon. This paper argues for the broader use of global mean temperature change trajectories in educating policy makers and the public about greenhouse gas control, thereby making climate policy discussions more scientifically rigorous while demystifying the criteria upon which policy choices are made. Examples provided include multiyear emissions, venting versus flaring of natural gas, electric power generated by natural gas versus coal, European gas supply by LNG versus pipeline, European electric power by imported gas versus coal, and livestock reduction.

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“…56% выбросов метана в атмосферу и делают основной вклад в дисбаланс со способностями Земли его поглощать. Хотя метана в атмосфере намного меньше, чем углекислого газа, он поглощает тепловое инфракрасное излучение гораздо более эффективно и, как следствие, обладает потенциалом глобального потепления в 86 раз сильнее на единицу массы, чем CO 2 , в 20-летний период времени и 28 раз сильнее в 100-летнем масштабе [9].…”

Section: риски прямых инвестиций и решения по их минимизацииunclassified

“…Эксперты ООН подсчитали, что с начала нынешнего столетия в 50 крупнейших экономиках мира было при-нято более 500 регулятивных актов (97% от общего их количества начиная с 1972 г. ), которые определяют долгосрочные приоритеты государства по устойчивому развитию 9 .…”

Section: риски государственного регулированияunclassified

ESG risks Management in Commercial Organizations

Smirnov

2020

Upravlencheskie nauki

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The study subject of this paper is the identification of changes in public perception of environmental problems, social and corporate governance issues, and the risks arising from its. The goal is going to be finding ways to manage these risks. The research’s methodology envisages a consistent analysis of impact of the amended approaches of society on the basic aspects of companies’ activities, starting from the investment stage, with definition of qualitative and quantitative parameters of the likely risks and benefits associated with the introduction of sustainable development principles by commercial organizations. The result of the study is identification a degree of impact of acceptance of importance or refusal of management of the specified risks on companies’ financial result and its value for shareholders and investors. It is substantiated that nowadays the motivation of investors is determined not only by financial performance of the company, but also by its efforts to comply with the changed ideas of state and society about interaction of the economy and the environment, relations between people. Recommendations are formulated for companies to manage these risks, which are important for all sectors of the economy.

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Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Cited by 266 publications

References 25 publications

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers

ESG risks Management in Commercial Organizations

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