The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers

Kleinberg, R.L.

doi:10.31223/x5p88d

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(35 reference statements)

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“…However, the radiative forcing per ton of methane emissions is more than a hundred times greater than that of carbon dioxide [Roy, 2015, Supplementary Information]. Therefore the prompt effect of these two gases on globalaverage surface temperature is comparable [Kleinberg, 2020].…”

Section: Methane As a Greenhouse Gasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Kleinberg¹

2022

Preprint

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Methane emissions are a major driver of human-induced climate change. Moreover, reduction of the rate of methane emissions is the fastest and least disruptive way to moderate global temperature rise over the next several decades. The production of fossil fuels - principally coal, oil, and natural gas – is an important source of anthropogenic methane. As one of the world’s most important producers of fossil fuels, the Russian Federation should play an important role in methane mitigation efforts. However, the Federation’s own estimates of methane emission intensity vary greatly from year to year, and are at variance with estimates of international data collection and research institutes. As a result of a recent series of large reductions in methane emission estimates, the self-reported methane emission intensity of the Russian Federation oil and gas industry is now less than comparable self reports of the United States. Satellite-based national-level estimates of Russian methane emissions are available, but the error bars are very large, and attributions to specific economic sectors are unreliable. Satellites are more reliable in characterizing plume events, but the measurements are insensitive and only account for a small fraction of total emissions. Coal mine methane emissions are easier to characterize but harder to remediate than emissions from oil and gas sources. In order for Russia to play a constructive role in climate change mitigation, better information about the state of emissions is required. Monitoring systems should be introduced, and common sense mitigation measures should be widely implemented.

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Section: Methane As a Greenhouse Gasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Effect of venting 146 billion cubic meters of 100% methane at year zero (red), versus flaring it at 100% efficiency to carbon dioxide (black). [Kleinberg, 2020]. Note the vertical axis differs from Figure 15.…”

Section: Routine and Event-driven Flaringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Kleinberg¹

2022

Preprint

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“…To facilitate comparison, the radiative forcing (left) and weighted/ discounted radiative forcing (right) are normalized such that the curves for carbon dioxide = 100 W m −2 at time = 0. Because methane has a much larger radiative forcing than carbon dioxide-at time = 0 the radiative forcing for methane is 120-fold larger than that for carbon dioxide-the corresponding curves for methane are additionally divided by 100 so both gases can be seen on the same plot [11,20].…”

Section: Traditional Emission Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GWP provides a single number that enables 'apples to apples' evaluation of any SLCP by directly comparing its potency to the potency of carbon dioxide. Additionally, numerous alternative metrics have been proposed, each designed to evaluate different aspects of the climate system [4,[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. As reviewed by Balcombe [4], these metrics evaluate different timeframes, physical bases, emission durations, and more.…”

Section: Traditional Emission Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present global warming: a justifiable and stable metric for evaluating short-lived climate pollutants

Pomerantz

Kleinberg

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The impacts of short-lived climate pollutants such as methane are typically described using metrics that compare their climate impacts to carbon dioxide’s climate impact. The metrics consider a climate pollutant’s atmospheric heat-trapping effectiveness and atmospheric lifetime. Here we introduce an alternative metric called the Present Global Warming (PGW), which uses economic exponential discount modeling to characterize short-term and long-term effects simultaneously, resulting in a justifiable, familiar, and stable metric for evaluating short-lived climate pollutants. We recommend quantifying the climate impacts of methane emissions using 2.5% annual discounting—consistent with the discount rates recently proposed in academic work and traditionally used in climate policy—corresponding to methane PGW2.5% = 50. In this context, one ton of emitted methane has the same climate impact as 50 tons of emitted carbon dioxide.

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EPA Methane Emission Controls, Obama vs Trump vs Biden: What Needs to Be Fixed and What Should be Left Alone

Kleinberg

2021

SSRN Journal

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The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers

Cited by 3 publications

References 30 publications

Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Present global warming: a justifiable and stable metric for evaluating short-lived climate pollutants

EPA Methane Emission Controls, Obama vs Trump vs Biden: What Needs to Be Fixed and What Should be Left Alone

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