Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal?

Hsu, Pang‐Chi; Li, Tim; Luo, Jianbin; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kitoh, Akio; Zhao, Ming

doi:10.1029/2012gl051037

Cited by 126 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…If this relationship remains valid under the altered atmospheric circulation patterns of an anthropogenically altered climate, then future monsoon responses may become stronger. This inference seems to be supported by recent instrumentally based observations (31) and model results (32,33).…”

supporting

confidence: 73%

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

Asmerom

Polyak

Rasmussen

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

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supporting

confidence: 73%

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

Asmerom

Polyak

Rasmussen

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…The 10-year analysis period is short, and this cautions against over-interpreting this apparent "tropical water sink". However it is of interest to note that a gradual strengthening of global monsoon rainfall extent and intensity has been observed, and is predicted to continue (Hsu et al, 2012). In any event, the difference between prior and posterior trends in Fig.…”

Section: Contributions To Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

A global water cycle reanalysis (2003–2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

Dijk

Renzullo

Wada

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

129

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Abstract. We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data assimilation scheme were derived from available uncertainty information and the triple collocation technique. Errors in four GRACE storage products were estimated to be 11-12 mm over land areas, while errors in monthly storage changes derived from five global hydrological models were estimated to be 17-28 mm. Prior and posterior water storage estimates were evaluated against independent observations of river water level and discharge, snow water storage and glacier mass loss. Data assimilation improved or maintained agreement overall, although results varied regionally. Uncertainties were greatest in regions where glacier mass loss and subsurface storage decline are both plausible but poorly constrained. We calculated a global water budget for [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012]. The main changes were a net loss of polar ice caps (−342 Gt yr −1 ) and mountain glaciers (−230 Gt yr −1 ), with an additional decrease in seasonal snowpack (−18 Gt yr −1 ). Storage increased due to new impoundments (+16 Gt yr −1 ), but this was compensated by decreases in other surface water bodies (−10 Gt yr −1 ). If the effect of groundwater depletion (−92 Gt yr −1 ) is considered separately, subsurface water storage increased by +202 Gt yr −1 due particularly to increased wetness in northern temperate regions and in the seasonally wet tropics of South America and southern Africa. The reanalysis results are publicly available via www.wenfo.org/wald/.

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“…Unfortunately, the change of the monsoons on global scale under increasing greenhouse gases forcing and aerosols has not been clearly documented. Recently, Hsu et al (2012) showed that most models in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 project an increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming mainly attributable to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation. However, evaluation of models' historical simulations and estimation of uncertainty in the corresponding future projections are prerequisite to assessment of the future changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5

2012

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This study investigates future changes of Global Monsoon (GM) under anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by comparing two runs: the historical run for 1850-2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006-2100. A metrics for evaluation of models' performance on GM is designed to document performance for 1980-2005 and best four models are selected. The four best models' multi-model ensemble (B4MME) projects the following changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario. (1) Monsoon domain will not change appreciably but land monsoon domain over Asia tends to expand westward by 10.6 %. (2) The annual mean and range of GM precipitation and the percentage of local summer rainfall will all amplify at a significant level over most of the global region, both over land and over ocean. (3) There will be a more prominent northern-southern hemispheric asymmetry and eastern-western hemispheric asymmetry. (4) Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon onset will be advanced and withdrawal will be delayed. (5) Changes in monsoon precipitation exhibits huge differences between the NH and the Southern hemisphere (SH). The NH monsoon precipitation will increase significantly due to increase in temperature difference between the NH and SH, significant enhancement of the Hadley circulation, and atmospheric moistening, against stabilization of troposphere. There is a slight decrease of the Walker circulation but not significant against the inter-model spread.There are important differences between the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 results which are discussed in detail.

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Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal?

Cited by 126 publications

References 30 publications

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

A global water cycle reanalysis (2003–2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5

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