Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5

Lee, June‐Yi; Wang, Bin

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0

Cited by 414 publications

(432 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(43 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

353

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The NRMSE is the RMSE normalized by the observed standard deviation that is calculated with reference to the global mean (Lee and Wang 2014).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data (Xie and Arkin 1997) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data (Huffman et al 2009) from 1979 to 2010 are merged by arithmetic mean to serve as the observation data (Lee and Wang 2014). The reason to merge the CMAP and GPCP data sets is to diminish the uncertainty of the individual dataset.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, the difference between the CMAP and the GPCP is not significant in terms of climatology. As Lee and Wang (2014) found that the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) between CMAP and GPCP climatology is 0.95, 0.94, 0.95, 0.96 and 0.96, respectively for annual mean, March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), September-October-November (SON), and December-January-February (DJF) seasonal mean precipitation. The merged precipitation data is also on a fixed 2.5° (latitude) × 2.5° (longitude) grid.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main differences between the simulation and the observation are found over East Asia, Northwest Pacific and South American monsoon regions. Lee and Wang (2014) evaluated the historical run period of 1980-2005 derived from the 20 CGCMs' MME participated in the CMIP5. They also found that the simulated monsoon precipitation intensity and domain did not match the observed well over the Western North Pacific-East Asia monsoon region.…”

Section: Global Monsoon Precipitation Intensity and Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, the total global monsoon precipitation (over both land and ocean) shows increasing trends over the period of 1979-2008. The future change of the GM precipitation and intensity has been investigated (Kitoh et al 2013;Christensen et al 2013;Hsu et al 2013;Chen and Sun 2013;Lee and Wang 2014) using the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and/or RCP 8.5) for 2006-2100 as projected by models participated in CMIP5. The results show that the GM precipitation will increase over most parts of the GM regions due to the moisture convergence increase, but whether the GM domain will expand or not is inconsistent within these works.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

show abstract

“…The NRMSE is the RMSE normalized by the observed standard deviation that is calculated with reference to the global mean (Lee and Wang 2014).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Global Monsoon Precipitation Intensity and Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate

Endo

2014

Geophysical Research Letters

129

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study investigates thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate, by using 20 climate model outputs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5. In a warmer climate, rainfall is projected to increase in most monsoon regions. However, the rates of increase are quite different among the monsoon regions. A diagnosis based on a linearized moisture budget equation reveals that the regional differences of the rainfall change are largely explained by differences in the dynamic effect. In the Asian monsoon regions, monsoon circulation slows down at a much lower rate than in the other monsoon regions; in addition, surface evaporation increases at a higher rate, resulting in a much larger increase in rainfall. These features are commonly found in both CMIP Phase 3 and Phase 5 model projections.

show abstract

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] The ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

show abstract

Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5

Cited by 414 publications

References 27 publications

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About