Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

Abstract

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies. D

Do green tech policies need to pass the consumer test?

“…Petrolia et al (2010) used a contingent valuation approach to estimate public interest in ethanol, finding that on average, consumers would be willing to pay a small premium for ethanol blends relative to an equivalent volume of gasoline. It is far from a trivial task to find answers to these questions when applied to radically innovative technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or, to a lesser extent, hybrid electric vehicles, because of the complexities of the bounded rationality 1 of consumer preferences (measurable and non-measurable) (Turrentine and Kurani, 2007) and the interplay of affected stakeholders (Collantes, 2007). Flex-fuel vehicles running on ethanol blends offer consumers a familiar technology interface, and thus we expect that more direct analytic comparisons between the value propositions of these vehicles and gasoline vehicles can be made.…”

The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States

“…For question b, answer options were provided as year numbers Table 11, while response frequencies to questions b and c are shown in Tables 12 and 13, respectively. A detailed analysis of the responses to the market-demand questions can be found in Collantes (2007).…”

ZrMoN films on 304 stainless steel as bipolar plates for PEMFCs using physical-vapor-deposition (PVD) technology

“…The whole world requires the pollution to be reduced due to the global warming, caused by greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , NOx and Sox. 1,2 The proton-exchangemembrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is considered to be a competitive candidate as the next-generation power source for automotive, stationary and portable applications due to its prominent characteristics including a quick startup, zero emission, high efficiency, etc.…”

“…1,2 The proton-exchangemembrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is considered to be a competitive candidate as the next-generation power source for automotive, stationary and portable applications due to its prominent characteristics including a quick startup, zero emission, high efficiency, etc. [3][4][5] It is a device that directly and efficiently converts chemical energy into electricity.…”