Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: a methodological proposal

Abstract

PurposeA particular feature that makes foresight powerful is its capability to learn from past trends to help guide decision‐making for future policy. However, in studying both past and future trends, network perspectives are often missing. Since networks are capable of revealing the structure that underpins relationships between stakeholders, key issues and actions in the past, they are powerful to help envisage the future. The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodological framework to incorporate network analysis in foresight.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops a generic framework to incorporate network analysis into foresight's five stages. Trends identified by respondents of the Big Picture Survey are used to demonstrate how we operationalize this framework.FindingsA network perspective can enrich foresight analysis in that it helps reveal structural linkages between trends and thus can better identify emerging future issues, both of which are critical in foresight.Research limitations/implicationsThe inclusion of network analysis can shed light on the process of understanding complex data and assist in building a model based on links and relationships. Network analysis can reveal otherwise unobservable structural features of the data and can help boundary setting discussions in foresight.Practical implicationsNetwork concepts and measures could usefully enrich the interpretation of foresight data for further analysis, or plausible scenarios.Originality/valueNetwork analysis offers a new way of looking at the foresight data by disentangling complicated issue webs. As shaping the future becomes more essential because of the complexity of science, technology and society interrelationships, the incorporation of network perspectives in foresight might be one of the ways to propel future studies.

The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

“…However, subsequent work will concentrate more on the interpretation of the rich data set that has been acquired and will be augmented. A first, but a limited attempt at further interpretation of the BPS data has already been made by using social network analysis in a paper by Nugroho and Saritas [17]. Another paper dedicated to a further elaboration of the BPS results is planned by the authors in 2009.…”

When all seemed lost. A social network analysis of the waste-related environmental movement in Campania, Italy

“…SNA enables scientists to analyze structural composition and relational components of evolving systems that cannot otherwise be identified using other techniques (Nugroho & Saritas, 2009Wasserman & Faust, 1994.…”

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“…Рассмотрим применение указанного подхода на примере интерпретации результатов обследования «Big Picture Survey», реализованного в 2008 г. На эта-пе сканирования проводился опрос, охвативший по-рядка 300 экспертов со всего мира; его результаты позволили выявить целый спектр трендов, драйверов перемен, «слабых сигналов», «диких карт/шоковых событий» и переломных моментов. Затем, в ходе се-тевого анализа, при создании так называемых «со-циограмм» были идентифицированы системные связи между указанными явлениями [Nugroho, Saritas, 2009]. Социограммы помогают визуализировать структуры или комбинации взаимосвязей, кластеры, коллабoративные и диффузионные сети, продемон-стрировать возникающие эффекты, которые невоз-можно отобразить каким-либо иным образом [Knox et al, 2006;Fuhse, 2009].…”

“…При подготовке статьи использовались материалы, изложенные в предыдущей совместной работе авторов [Nugroho, Saritas, 2009]. Авторы выражают благодарность участникам Международной конференции по ориентированному на будущее анализу технологий, любезно согласившимся принять участие в опросе «Big Picture Survey».…”