The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

Sarıtas, Ozcan; Smith, Jack

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007

Cited by 159 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…3 Analysing drivers is important because it helps understand what forces have been, and could be at play with a potential to transform the current situation into alternative and plausible futures (Godet 1986;Saritas and Smith 2011). Drivers are related to the analysis of the causal relations behind an observed phenomenon (hunger in this case) and unveil the worldviews on which futures studies are designed by their authors (Inayatullah 1998).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Insecurity: The Future Challenge

Bourgeois

2016

IDS Bulletin

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Insecurity: The Future Challenge

Bourgeois

2016

IDS Bulletin

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“…Saritas and Smith define discontinuities as Brapid and significant shifts in trajectories without the aspect of being mostly unanticipated or deeply surprising^which B[extend] beyond single events^and Bfundamentally [alter] the previous pathways or expected direction of policies, events and planning regimes^ [66].…”

Section: Discontinuities and Surprises In A World Of Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is, however, no reason to define discontinuities as exclusively rapid shifts -they can as well be gradual, long-term and deep change processes. Saritas and Smith mention Facebook as one example of a discontinuity, but in fact the rise of Facebook was not a rapid shift [66]. Established in 2004, it took Facebook three years to reach fifty million users and eight years for a billion users.…”

Section: Discontinuities and Surprises In A World Of Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

et al. 2017

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We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

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“…Broad scanning for signals: The preliminary identification of signals can use various sources, like wikis, Twitter, and other internet sources such as blog reports, literature consultation, but also conference Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011). These events tend to alter the fundamentals, and create new trajectories which can then create a new basis for additional challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders may not have previously considered or prepared for (Saritas and Smith 2011). Wild cards represent the occurrence of a singular (historically original), sudden (abrupt, fast), surprising (unexpected) and shattering (serious, severe) event that come out of the blue and therefore present a significant foresight challenge both for policy makers and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al 2009) …”

Section: Exploratory Scanningmentioning

confidence: 99%

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Amanatidou

Butter²,

Carabias-Hütter

et al. 2012

Science and Public Policy

119

110

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Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.

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The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

Cited by 159 publications

References 7 publications

Food Insecurity: The Future Challenge

Food Insecurity: The Future Challenge

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

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