Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Smith, Mark W.; Willis, Thomas; Alfieri, Lorenzo; James, William H.; Trigg, Mark A.; Yamazaki, Dai; Hardy, Andrew; Bisselink, Berny; Roo, Ad de; Macklin, Mark G.; Thomas, Chris

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5

Cited by 26 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Indeed, dynamical changes in temperature and precipitation inevitably affect vegetation, which in turn could affect mosquito dynamics at small spatial scale 40,41 . Finally, an increase in spatial resolution is necessary to take into account the hydrology of basins (with the presence of river, lakes...) and dams 42 . In addition, we only use one climate model for practical reasons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

et al. 2021

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Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

et al. 2021

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“…For example, in this study, we used a relatively simple approach to measuring population at risk and temperature-sensitive transmission. More advanced models that incorporate human-vector transmission dynamics, and other climate variables like precipitation, have become increasingly accessible (37); accounting for these variables will only complicate the non-linear relationships between health outcomes and climate geoengineering interventions. Similarly, the relative priority of malaria is dependent not just on climate change scenarios, but also planetary health scenarios (38).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Carlson

Colwell

Hossain

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the costs or benefits of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing transmission suitability and populations-at-risk today against moderate and high emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering over the next half-century. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from the encroachment of malaria, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we also find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

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“…Malaria transmission cycles are sensitive to climate variability, and satellite observations provide accurate, reliable, and timely information about these variations. Precipitation influences the hydrological cycles of aquatic habitats for anopheline larvae [10], while temperature and humidity affect the vital rates that drive mosquito population dynamics, parasite development in the mosquito, and parasite transmission [11]. Climate also affects malaria indirectly through influences on land use, settlement patterns, and human population movements [12].…”

Section: Long-term Records Of Environmental Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite Observations and Malaria: New Opportunities for Research and Applications

Wimberly

Beurs

Loboda

et al. 2021

Trends in Parasitology

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Satellite remote sensing provides a wealth of information about environmental factors that influence malaria transmission cycles and human populations at risk. Long-term observations facilitate analysis of climate-malaria relationships, and high-resolution data can be used to assess the effects of agriculture, urbanization, deforestation, and water management on malaria. New sources of very-high-resolution satellite imagery and synthetic aperture radar data will increase the precision and frequency of observations. Cloud computing platforms for remote sensing data combined with analysis-ready datasets and high-level data products have made satellite remote sensing more accessible to nonspecialists. Further collaboration between the malaria and remote sensing communities is needed to develop and implement useful geospatial data products that will support global efforts toward malaria control, elimination, and eradication. Satellite Observations and MalariaSince 2000, considerable progress has been made in reducing the global burden of malaria, shrinking the malaria map, and moving toward the goal of malaria eradication [1-3]. However, there is concern that declines in malaria cases and deaths have slowed [4]. Although the reasons for this slowdown are multifaceted, an important factor is the limited set of tools and approaches that are currently available for combating malaria. The recent Lancet Commission report on malaria eradication emphasized that new technologies, including innovations in the field of malaria informatics, are needed to facilitate more effective datadriven management of malaria interventions [5]. Geospatial data, including satellite observations, were highlighted as a key data source for monitoring human populations and their environments in support of malaria eradication. This recommendation is concordant with other assessments that have emphasized the importance of spatial decision support systems to enable national and subnational program management as well as regional and global strategic planning [6].The value of satellite observations for malaria research has long been recognized, with the earliest reviews appearing more than two decades ago [7-9]. Since then, considerable changes in global antimalaria efforts and advances in the field of remote sensing have taken place. Myriad connections between the environmental phenomena observed by satellite-borne sensors and different aspects of the malaria transmission cycle have been identified (Figure 1). However, the challenges of discovering, accessing, and processing relevant satellite data (Figure 2) still limit their use for malaria projects. The purpose of this review is to present an up-to-date assessment of satellite missions relevant to malaria and identify opportunities where new sources of remote sensing data can be leveraged to support novel applications. Major themes include long-term satellite records of environmental changes that affect malaria risk, new sources of satellite data with higher spatial resolution, measurement frequen...

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Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Cited by 26 publications

References 47 publications

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Satellite Observations and Malaria: New Opportunities for Research and Applications

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