Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk

Predicting potential and actual distribution of sudden oak death in Oregon: Prioritizing landscape contexts for early detection and eradication of disease outbreaks

“…Second, researchers estimate the actual distribution of a biological invasion by identifying areas where the invader currently exists, constrained not only by environmental factors but also by colonization time lag and dispersal limitations (Soberon, 2007;Jimenez-Valverde et al, 2008). While the first approach has been used to target various ecosystems potentially threatened by invasive organisms and diseases (Meentemeyer et al, 2004;Lippitt et al, 2008), or to understand the behavior of invaders in novel landscapes (Peterson et al, 2003;Sutherst and Bourne, 2009), the second approach is essential for quantifying the actual range of invasions and predicting their extant consequences in specific environments (Meentemeyer et al, 2008a;Václavík and Meentemeyer, 2009). Although knowledge from both types of spatial models can be extremely useful for guiding the management of biological invasions, no studies to date have used both approaches simultaneously to prioritize landscape contexts for early detection surveillance and invasion control.…”

“…However, species distribution models (SDMs) that characterize the ecological niche of organisms and relate it to known environmental factors have provided an effective analytical framework for predicting the spread of biological invasions (e.g., Lippitt et al, 2008;Chytry et al, 2009;Strubbe and Matthysen, 2009). To develop invasive species distribution models (iSDMs), two approaches have been generally adopted, although their distinction has often been unclear in the literature.…”

Applying a spread model to identify the entry points from which the pine wood nematode, the vector of pine wilt disease, would spread most rapidly across Europe

“…However, possible long distance jumps combined with short-distance movements, so-called stratified dispersal, can significantly increase the speed of expansion (Shigesada and Kawasaki 1997;Liebhold and Tobin 2008). Increasingly, studies have shown that human-mediated dispersal plays an important role in the long-distance dispersal of invasive terrestrial invertebrates (e.g., Gilbert et al 2004;Muirhead et al 2006;Lippitt et al 2008;Pitt et al 2009;Robinet et al 2009). Since these long-distance jumps have a low probability of occurrence and are difficult to predict, the most appropriate models to describe this type of spread are stochastic although hundreds of replicate simulations may be required to obtain a representative estimate of potential spread (Pitt et al 2009;Robinet et al 2009).…”

Assessing coastal species distribution models through the integration of terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric data

“…Anthropogenic influences have been shown to significantly affect species' distributions, with Lippitt et al . () arguing that SDMs must incorporate anthropogenic effects. Our findings agree, in that an anthropogenic variable was selected as the most important single environmental variable in multiple single‐species models (results not shown).…”