Background
Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among men between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). While non-Hispanic whites (NHW) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have shown the greatest increase in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, and National Program of Cancer Registries was conducted.
Methods
TGCT incidence data among 15–59 year olds for the years 1999–2012 were obtained from 39 US cancer registries. Incidence rates through 2026 were forecast using age-period-cohort models, stratifying by race/ethnicity, histology (seminoma, nonseminoma), and age.
Results
Between 1999 and 2012, TGCT incidence rates, overall and by histology, were highest among NHWs, followed by Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and non-Hispanic blacks. Between 2013 and 2026, rates among Hispanics were forecast to increase by 3.96% (95% Confidence Interval: 3.88–4.03) annually, the highest rate of increase of any racial/ethnic group. By 2026, the highest TGCT rates in the US will be among Hispanics, due to increases in both seminoma and nonseminoma. Rates among NHWs will increase slightly, while rates among other groups will decrease slightly.
Conclusion
By 2026, Hispanics will have the highest rate of TGCT of any racial/ethnic group in the US due to the rising incidence among recent birth cohorts. Reasons for the increase in younger Hispanics merit further exploration.