Aims This observational study characterized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk for multiple cancer sites, with respect to the following: (i) continuous calendar year, (ii) age at diagnosis, and (iii) follow-up time after diagnosis. Methods and results The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program was used to compare the US general population to 3 234 256 US cancer survivors (1973–2012). Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using coded cause of death from CVDs (heart disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, atherosclerosis, and aortic aneurysm/dissection). Analyses were adjusted by age, race, and sex. Among 28 cancer types, 1 228 328 patients (38.0%) died from cancer and 365 689 patients (11.3%) died from CVDs. Among CVDs, 76.3% of deaths were due to heart disease. In eight cancer sites, CVD mortality risk surpassed index-cancer mortality risk in at least one calendar year. Cardiovascular disease mortality risk was highest in survivors diagnosed at <35 years of age. Further, CVD mortality risk is highest (SMR 3.93, 95% confidence interval 3.89–3.97) within the first year after cancer diagnosis, and CVD mortality risk remains elevated throughout follow-up compared to the general population. Conclusion The majority of deaths from CVD occur in patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or bladder cancer. We observed that from the point of cancer diagnosis forward into survivorship cancer patients (all sites) are at elevated risk of dying from CVDs compared to the general US population. In endometrial cancer, the first year after diagnosis poses a very high risk of dying from CVDs, supporting early involvement of cardiologists in such patients.

Purpose Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates have been increasing in the United States for the past 35 years. Because HCC has a poor prognosis, quantitative forecasts could help to inform prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the incidence and burden of HCC. Methods Single-year HCC incident case and population data for the years 2000 to 2012 and ages 35 to 84 years were obtained from the SEER 18 Registry Database. We forecast incident HCC cases through 2030, using novel age-period-cohort models and stratifying by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Rates are presented because absolute numbers may be influenced by population increases. Results Rates of HCC increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959. However, rates began to decrease with the 1960 to 1969 birth cohorts. Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs) have had the highest HCC rates in the United States for many years, but the rates have stabilized and begun to decline in recent years. Between 2013 and 2030, rates among APIs are forecast to decline further, with estimated annual percentage changes of −1.59% among men and −2.20% among women. Thus, by 2030, Asians are forecast to have the lowest incidence rates among men, and Hispanics are forecast to have the highest rates among men (age-standardized rate, 44.2). Blacks are forecast to have the highest rate among women (age-standardized rate, 12.82). Conclusion Although liver cancer has long had some of the most rapidly increasing incidence rates, the decreasing rates seen among APIs, individuals younger than 65 years, and cohorts born after 1960 suggest that there will be declines in incidence of HCC in future years. Prevention efforts should be focused on individuals in the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts, Hispanics, and blacks.

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ObjectivesLatent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) is a relatively new methodology in epidemiology to describe life-course exposures, which simplifies heterogeneous populations into homogeneous patterns or classes. However, for a given dataset, it is possible to derive scores of different models based on number of classes, model structure and trajectory property. Here, we rationalise a systematic framework to derive a ‘core’ favoured model.MethodsWe developed an eight-step framework: step 1: a scoping model; step 2: refining the number of classes; step 3: refining model structure (from fixed-effects through to a flexible random-effect specification); step 4: model adequacy assessment; step 5: graphical presentations; step 6: use of additional discrimination tools (‘degree of separation’; Elsensohn’s envelope of residual plots); step 7: clinical characterisation and plausibility; and step 8: sensitivity analysis. We illustrated these steps using data from the NIH-AARP cohort of repeated determinations of body mass index (BMI) at baseline (mean age: 62.5 years), and BMI derived by weight recall at ages 18, 35 and 50 years.ResultsFrom 288 993 participants, we derived a five-class model for each gender (men: 177 455; women: 111 538). From seven model structures, the favoured model was a proportional random quadratic structure (model F). Favourable properties were also noted for the unrestricted random quadratic structure (model G). However, class proportions varied considerably by model structure—concordance between models F and G were moderate (Cohen κ: men, 0.57; women, 0.65) but poor with other models. Model adequacy assessments, evaluations using discrimination tools, clinical plausibility and sensitivity analyses supported our model selection.ConclusionWe propose a framework to construct and select a ‘core’ LCTM, which will facilitate generalisability of results in future studies.

In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

Key Points Question Does an association exist between patterns in leisure-time physical activity occurring during adolescence (15-18 years of age) or early (19-29 years of age), middle (35-39 years of age), and later (40-61 years of age) adulthood and all-cause or cause-specific mortality? Findings This cohort study of 315 059 participants found that maintaining physical activity from adolescence into later adulthood was associated with 29% to 36% lower risk for all-cause mortality and that being inactive but increasing physical activity during midlife was associated with 32% to 35% lower risk for mortality. Meaning Although long-term participation in physical activity may be important to lower mortality risk, the present study provides evidence that becoming physically active later in adulthood (40-61 years of age) may provide comparable health benefits.

Purpose For BRCA1/BRCA2 gene testing to benefit public health, mutation carriers must initiate appropriate risk management strategies. There has been little research examining the long-term use and prospective predictors of the full range of risk management behaviors among women who have undergone BRCA1/2 testing. We evaluated long-term uptake and predictors of risk reducing mastectomy (RRM), risk reducing oophorectomy (RRBSO), chemoprevention and cancer screening among women at a mean of 5.3 years post testing. Patients and Methods Participants were 465 women who underwent BRCA1/2 testing. Prior to genetic counseling, we measured family/personal cancer history, sociodemographics, perceived risk, cancer-specific and general distress. We contacted patients at a mean of 5.3-years post-testing to measure use of: RRM; RRBSO; chemoprevention; breast and ovarian cancer screening. Results Among participants with intact breasts and/or ovaries at the time of testing, BRCA1/2 carriers were significantly more likely to obtain RRM (37%) and RRBSO (65%) compared to women who received uninformative (RRM=6.8%; RRBSO=13.3%) or negative (RRM=0%; RRBSO=1.9%) results. Among carriers, pre-counseling anxiety was associated with subsequent uptake of RRM. RRO was predicted by age. Carriers were also more likely have used breast cancer chemoprevention and have obtained a screening MRI. Conclusion This prospective evaluation of the uptake and predictors of long-term management outcomes provides a clearer picture of decision making in this population. By a mean of 5.3 years post-testing, more than 80% of carriers had obtained RRM, RRBSO or both, suggesting that BRCA1/2 testing is likely to favorably impact breast and ovarian cancer outcomes.

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