Inattention in boys from low-income backgrounds predicts welfare receipt: a 30-year prospective study

Abstract

BackgroundChildhood disruptive behaviors are highly prevalent and associated with adverse long-term social and economic outcomes. Trajectories of welfare receipt in early adulthood and the association of childhood behaviors with high welfare receipt trajectories have not been examined.MethodsBoys (n = 1000) from low socioeconomic backgrounds were assessed by kindergarten teachers for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression, opposition, and prosociality, and prospectively followed up for 30 years. We used group-base trajectory modeling to estimate trajectories of welfare receipt from age 19–36 years using government tax return records, then examined the association between teacher-rated behaviors and trajectory group membership using mixed effects multinomial regression models.ResultsThree trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (70.8%), declining (19.9%), and chronic (9.3%). The mean annual personal employment earnings (US$) for the three groups at age 35/36 years was $36 500 (s.d. = $24 000), $15 600 (s.d. = $16 275), and $1700 (s.d. = $4800), respectively. Relative to the low welfare receipt group, a unit increase in inattention (mean = 2.64; s.d. = 2.32, range = 0–8) at age 6 was associated with an increased risk of being in the chronic group (relative risk ratio; RRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.03–1.31) and in the declining group (RRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.23), after adjustment for child IQ and family adversity, and independent of other behaviors. Family adversity was more strongly associated with trajectories of welfare receipt than any behavior.ConclusionsBoys from disadvantaged backgrounds exhibiting high inattention in kindergarten are at elevated risk of chronic welfare receipt during adulthood. Screening and support for inattentive behaviors beginning in kindergarten could have long-term social and economic benefits for individuals and society.

Behaviors in kindergarten are associated with trajectories of long-term welfare receipt: A 30-year population-based study

“…Childhood behavioral problems are an important, though under studied, distal predictor of future economic difficulties. The limitations of previous studies have been summarized elsewhere (Vergunst et al, 2020) and here we address the limitations and literature gaps most pertinent to the present study.…”

Behavior in childhood is associated with romantic partnering patterns in adulthood

“…Ratings of children's behavior were obtained from school teachers using the Social Behavior Questionnaire when the children were aged 10-12 years (Tremblay, Desmarais-Gervais, Gagnon, & Charlebois, 1987). The instrument is well-validated and has good predictive validity for a range of outcomes (Pingault et al, 2011;Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, et al, 2019a, 2019b. Behaviors were assessed as follows: Inattention (4 items): poor concentration, distracted, head in the clouds, lack of persistence.…”

Commentary: On intimate relationships, adult roles, interplay of family adversity and individual vulnerability, intergenerational transmission, and developmental selection – commentary on Vergunst et al. (2020)

“…Vergunst et al (2020) show that family adversity in childhood is predictive of problems in formation and maintenance of intimate relationships in the next generation. Similarly, Pingault et al showed that low parental educational and occupational level predicted lower educational attainment in the next generation, Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Algan, et al (2019) that low parental educational and occupational level predicted lower income in the next generation, and Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Zheng, et al (2019) that low parental income predicted more reliance on governmental financial support in the next generation. Together, these results demonstrate intergenerational transmission of problems across various developmental domains: intimate relationships, educational attainment and income, and work.…”

“…Are these risk factors also predictive of problems in investing or growing into other age-graded roles in (early) adulthood such as finishing an education and becoming economically self-reliant? A series of studies using the same dataset (Pingault et al, 2011;Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Algan, et al, 2019;Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Zheng, et al, 2019) provide an answer. A nice feature here is that the studies allow to compare the effects of family adversity, child IQ, inattention, aggression-opposition, anxiety, and prosociality.…”

“…The study by Vergunst et al has multiple strengths: (a) the use of multi-informant data, childhood behaviors were rated by teachers whereas partnership data at the ages 18-35 were derived from tax return records; (b) adequate controls of background characteristics (gender of child and family socio-economic status), and (c) a big sample size allowing to assess adequately heterogeneity of partnering trajectories. The report also adds to the growing but relatively small number of studies demonstrate that childhood behaviors are predictive of adult behavior (for instance Pingault et al, 2011;Rivenbark et al, 2018, as cited in Vergunst et al, 2020Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Algan, et al, 2019;Vergunst, Tremblay, Nagin, Zheng, et al, 2019). A limitation of this type of studies is that they identify earlier markers of adult problems but are not informative on the developmental processes that carry their effects.…”