Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks

Butler, M. P.; Reed, Patrick M.; Fisher‐Vanden, Karen; Keller, Klaus; Wagener, Thorsten

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1283-0

Cited by 16 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…A simple practical example of how to visualise and interpret a set of global sensitivity indices is given in Figure 4. Examples of how global sensitivity indices can help overcome the limitations of OAT approaches and avoid missing or misclassifying key sensitivities are given for example by Saltelli and D'Hombres (2010) and Butler et al (2014).…”

Section: Global Methods Measure Direct and Joint Effects Of Input Factors Across Their Variability Space (So No Baseline Point Needs To Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

Wagener

Pianosi

2019

Earth-Science Reviews

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Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision-and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) methods. Previous reviews have characterised the variability of GSA methods available and their usability for different tasks. In our paper we rather focus on reviewing what has been learned so far by applying GSA to models across the earth system sciences, independently of the specific algorithm that was applied. We identify and discuss 10 key findings with general applicability and relevance for the earth sciences. We further provide an A-B-C-D of best practise in applying GSA methods, which we have derived from analysing why some GSA applications provided more insight than others. IntroductionComputer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and influence decision-and policy-making at various spatial and temporal scales. For example, computer models of the atmospheric system are used to produce short-term weather forecasts, which inform operational decisions at regional or local scale, or to make long-term projections of the global climate, which forms the basis of the international debate around climate change. Global hydrologic models can now provide a coherent picture of hydrological dynamics across our planet under past, current and potential future conditions (Schewe et al., 2014); while integrated assessment models integrate our climate system with the socio-economic behaviour of society to assess the consequences of future policy scenarios (Stanton et al., 2009). Many other examples of the value of computer models can be made for a variety of earth science areas, from atmospheric circulation (Cotton et al., 1995) to biogeochemical processes in the sea (Soetaert et al., 2000), from mantle dynamics (Yoshida and Santosh, 2011) to tsunamis impacts (Gelfenbaum et al., 2011).A key issue in the development of computer models is that they can quickly exhibit complicated behaviours because of the potentially high level of interactions between their variables, and subsequently their parameters, even

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Section: Global Methods Measure Direct and Joint Effects Of Input Factors Across Their Variability Space (So No Baseline Point Needs To Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

Wagener

Pianosi

2019

Earth-Science Reviews

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“…Quicker response options are also needed to avoid loss of high-carbon ecosystems and other vital ecosystem services that provide multiple services that are difficult to replace (peatlands, wetlands, mangroves, forests) (Yirdaw et al 2017;Pedrozo-Acuña et al 2015). Delayed action would raise relative costs in the future or could make response options less feasible (medium confidence) (Goldstein et al 2019;Butler et al 2014).…”

Section: Economics Of Land-based Mitigation Pathways: Costs Versus Benefits Of Early Action Under Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture

Howden

2021

Transitioning to a Prosperous, Resilient and Carbon-Free Economy

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Land, including its water bodies, provides the basis for human livelihoods and well-being through primary productivity, the supply of food, freshwater, and multiple other ecosystem services (high confidence). Neither our individual or societal identities, nor the world's economy would exist without the multiple resources, services and livelihood systems provided by land ecosystems and biodiversity. The annual value of the world's total terrestrial ecosystem services has been estimated at 75 trillion USD in 2011, approximately equivalent to the annual global Gross Domestic Product (based on USD2007 values) (medium confidence). Land and its biodiversity also represent essential, intangible benefits to humans, such as cognitive and spiritual enrichment, sense of belonging and aesthetic and recreational values. Valuing ecosystem services with monetary methods often overlooks these intangible services that shape societies, cultures and quality of life and the intrinsic value of biodiversity. The Earth's land area is finite. Using land resources sustainably is fundamental for human well-being (high confidence). {1.1.1} Land use and observed climate change SPM approved draft IPCC SRCCL | Page Subject to copy edit and layout 1 2 3 Prevalence of overweight + obese 4 Prevalence of underweight Total calories per capita Population CHANGE in EMISSIONS since 1961 B. GHG emissionsAn estimated 23% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) derive from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). E. Food demandIncreases in production are linked to consumption changes. F. Desertification and land degradationLand-use change, land-use intensification and climate change have contributed to desertification and land degradation.CHANGE in % rel. to 1961 and 1970 CHANGE in % rel. to 1961 and 1975 1 2 3 Inland wetland extent Dryland areas in drought annually Population in areas experiencing desertification 1 2 3 CHANGE in % rel. to 1961 1 2 3 Irrigation water volume 4 Total number of ruminant livestock Cereal yields Inorganic N fertiliser use Intensive pasture 2%12% (12 -14%) 1% (1 -1%) 37% (30 -47%) 22% (16 -23%) 28% (24 -31%)

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“…Hence, inadequate addressing this climate crisis by companies might exert a negative influence on the firm's key stakeholders, affecting the corporate profits, revenues, a lack of access to capital and investments, which could derive in a barrier on the corporate growth, increasing the risk to lose legitimacy and therefore, in the corporate survival (GlobeScan, 2019), as we can see in figure 6. Even though the urgency and interest to take action is remarkable, certain researches indicate that the optimal policy for climate change mitigation is the inaction (Ackerman & Finlayson, 2006 Another research was developed by Butler et al (2014) considering the benefits and costs of stabilization climatic policies using the model IAM (Integrated Assessment Models), where the costs and damages related to this climatic threat are underrated caused to the negligence to the uncertainty towards CO 2 stabilization minimize such risks.…”

Section: No Reductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Inaction in Business Management: An Exploratory Review of the Literature

Rodriguez-Jasso¹,

Briseño²,

Zorrilla³

2020

JSD

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Climate change is considered as one of the major threats for the international community due to its negative consequences in the financial, social, and environmental issues. Companies, who are considered as an essential element in the mitigation process, have exerted corporate inactivity to address climate change that has led to the increment of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to climate change over the last decade. The objective of this review is to explore, summarize, and analyze the state of knowledge in the business and management literature about climate inaction that guides future researches to diminish this corporate inactivity, enhancing the practices aimed to reduce such emissions. The review was developed through the narrative method in order to acquire a broad perspective of the phenomenon through the examination of 24 articles from the Web of Science from 1998 to 2018. Our findings indicate that climate inaction is nascent and fragmented literature where the company is identified as one of the main actors, being this approach developed from different perspectives that guide to decrease such corporate inactivity, and motivating the corporate action. The inclusion of the concept of climate inaction might lead to an understanding of the mechanisms for climate mitigation, providing a guide for future research in the field of environmental performance.

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Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks

Cited by 16 publications

References 43 publications

What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

Agriculture

Climate Inaction in Business Management: An Exploratory Review of the Literature

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