In Search of Structure: The Nonlinear Dynamics of Power Transitions

Abdollahian, Mark; Kang, Kyungkook

doi:10.1080/03050620802574887

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Given the subject’s inherently dynamic structure, we employ a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear differential equations to model HD theory. These types of models have been successfully employed in diverse physical as well as in social science settings, from electoral politics (Przeworski and Sprague 1986) to international conflict (Richardson 1960; Zinnes and Muncaster 1984; Kadera 2001; Abdollahian and Kang 2008; Abdollahian, Baranick, Nicholson, and Nickens 2008), and the mathematical theory of both linear and nonlinear differential equations is complete (Boyce and Diprima 2007).…”

Section: Toward a Formal Representationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective

Abdollahian¹,

Coan²,

Oh³

et al. 2012

International Studies Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abdollahian, Mark A. et al. (2012) Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468‐2478.2012.00736.x  © 2012 International Studies Association The relationship between economic development, cultural change, and political liberalization is often explored through the lens of classic modernization theory. Recent scholarship attempts to extend classic theory to be more closely aligned with empirical reality. Under the human development perspective, economic prosperity acts as a catalyst for cultural development, leading to social values that favor liberalization, and thus promotes effective democracy. Using a systems dynamic approach, we formalize the dynamic causal structure specified in the human development perspective, develop a novel econometric procedure (Genetic Algorithm Nonlinear Least Squares) to estimate the parameters of highly nonlinear, continuous time models, and verify our formal model using five waves of data from the World Values Survey. Our results indicate that development is strongly nonlinear and path dependent: Economic progress is a necessary condition for successful secularization and expressive political behavior, which are antecedents for lasting democratic institutions. Thus, policies and institutional arrangements must be tailored to, not outpace, a nation’s level of economic progress to create demand for a secular and expressive political marketplace where democratic institutions can sustain and thrive.

show abstract

Section: Toward a Formal Representationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective

Abdollahian¹,

Coan²,

Oh³

et al. 2012

International Studies Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another is to tackle far-from-equilibrium challenges by exploring the full dynamic characteristics of both societal systems and individuals. Key will be identifying behavioral symmetry breaks and formally testing for catastrophic or chaotic responses (Wolf et al 1985) to economic, cultural, social and political crisis (Abdollahian and Kang 2008), coupling or decoupling. One approach is to endogenize perturbations and shocks across Y, RS, SE and D values and agent space, to map equilibrium stability and system phase transitions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human development dynamics: an agent based simulation of macro social systems and individual heterogeneous evolutionary games

Abdollahian

Yang

Coan

et al. 2013

Complex Adapt Syst Model

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose: In the context of modernization and development, a complex adaptive systems framework can help address the coupling of macro social constraint and opportunity with individual agency. Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling, we formalize a simulation approach of the Human Development (HD) perspective to explore the interactive effects of economics, culture, society and politics across multiple human scales. Methods: Based on a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear equations, we first capture the core qualitative logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Using a simple evolutionary game approach, second we fuse endogenously derived individual socio-economic attribute changes with Prisoner's Dilemma in an agent based model of the interactive political-cultural effects of heterogeneous, spatial intra-societal economic transactions. We then explore a new human development dynamics (HDD) model behavior via quasiglobal simulation methods to identify paths and pitfalls towards economic development, cultural plasticity, social and political change behavior. Results: Our preliminary results suggest strong nonlinear path dependence and complexity in three areas: adaptive development processes, co-evolutionary societal transactions and near equilibrium development trajectories, with significant implications for anticipating and managing positive development outcomes. Strong local epistatic interactions characterized by adaptive co-evolution, shape higher order global conditions and ultimately societal outcomes. Conclusions: Techno-social simulations such as this can provide scholars and policymakers alike insights into the nonlinear, complex adaptive effects of societal co-evolution. We believe complex adaptive or evolutionary systems approaches are necessary to understand both near and potentially catastrophic, far-from-equilibrium behavior and societal outcomes across all human scales of modernization.

show abstract

“…It was adopted in the correct prediction of the rise of China and India to major power status by Wilson and Purushothaman (2003), Maddison (2003), Organski (1958) and Fogel (2007). Other successful application of PT includes Kang and Kugler's integrated formal deterrence structure using a game theoretic approach (Kang and Kugler, 2007), Abdollahian and Kang's analysis of conflict in multiple level among subnational, national and regional actors (Abdollahian and Kang, 2008), Alsharabati and Kugler's theorization on the stability of deterrence building (Alsharabati and ), Abdollahian's development of a system of nonlinear differential equations to simulate the structural conditions that lead to inter-state conflict or co-operation (Abdollahian, 1996) among other breakthrough in scholarship (Coan and Kuglar, 2008;Arbetman-Rabinwitz and Johnson, 2008;Feng et al, 2008). Recognizing PT as a powerful framework of analysis Dicocco and Levy concluded that PT is a lively and expanding research program that has moved forward in several important substantive directions .…”

Section: The Theoretical Foundation Of the Uyo Schoolmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1. The variables here are PT's established components of national power which are political capacity, economic capacity and demography (see, Abdollahian and Kang 2008;Tammen et al 2000 among others) 2. In the taxonomy of the Uyo School the concept of 'power forgone' is used to refer to the amount of national power as tate is willing to sacrifice at a particular time as are sult of a terrorist threat or attack in the process of Table 1.…”

Section: Endnotesmentioning

confidence: 99%

National power and the search for a generalized theory of terrorist target selection: An introduction to the Uyo School

Dode¹,

Ufomba²

2014

Afr. J. Pol. Sci. Int. Relat.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The assumption that terrorist organizations (TO) select their target(s) putting into consideration its own limited resources and the impact of the selected target on the national power of the victim state has been the underlying assumption of the Uyo School. In the face of the increasing search to uncover the determinant of terrorist target selection which has become central in terrorism literature does the Uyo School provide a generalized theory on the issue? And are its assumptions robust enough to provide the needed theoretical framework as a research program for more rigorous and scientific study on the subject matter? This paper makes a presentation of the core propositions of the school. It concludes that the school provides the most promising theorization on the subject.

show abstract

In Search of Structure: The Nonlinear Dynamics of Power Transitions

Cited by 11 publications

References 20 publications

Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective

Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective

Human development dynamics: an agent based simulation of macro social systems and individual heterogeneous evolutionary games

National power and the search for a generalized theory of terrorist target selection: An introduction to the Uyo School

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About