Improving the prediction of arbovirus outbreaks: A comparison of climate-driven models for West Nile virus in an endemic region of the United States

Davis, Justin K.; Vincent, Geoffrey P.; Hildreth, Michael B.; Kightlinger, Lon; Carlson, Christopher; Wimberly, Michael C.

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.04.028

Cited by 41 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…As the surface pressure variation is negligible so it can be dropped and thus the final influencing parameters can be related to humidity itself. The influence of humidity on the active number of COVID-19 cases has also been found in various studies done in different locations around the world [ 5 , 7 , 8 , 10 , 18 , 21 , [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 61%

A correlation study between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India

Kumar

2020

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Revi

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Background and aims Meteorological parameters play a major role in the transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. In this study, we aim to analyze the correlation between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in the financial capital of India, Mumbai. Methods In this research, we collected data from April 27 till July 25, 2020 (90 days). A Spearman rank correlation test along with two-tailed p test and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique have been used to predict the associations of COVID-19 with meteorological parameters. Results A significant correlation of COVID-19 was found with temperature (T min ), dew point (DP max ), relative humidity (RH max , RH avg , RH min ) and surface pressure (P max , P avg , P min ). The parameters which showed significant correlation were then taken for the modeling and prediction of COVID-19 infections using Artificial Neural Network technique. Conclusions It was found that the relative humidity and pressure parameters had the most influencing effect out of all other significant parameters (obtained from Spearman’s method) on the active number of COVID-19 cases. The finding in this study might be useful for the public, local authorities, and the Ministry of Health, Govt. of India to combat COVID-19.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 61%

A correlation study between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India

Kumar

2020

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Revi

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“…A wide variety of models have been used to model temperature effects on arboviruses, including Machine Learning techniques [148,149,150], a real-time Bayesian Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter method [151], spatiotemporal Bayesian models [152,153], generalized linear models [150,154,155,156,157], case-crossover approaches [158], seasonal autoregressive models [159,160], R 0 models [3], and Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models [3,124,151,161,162,163,164,165,166,167]. West Nile virus is by far the most studied enzootic arbovirus (Table 3).…”

Section: Viral Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within the main portion of the arboviruses’ range and along the cooler edge, an increase in temperature is typically associated with an increase in arboviral activity. For example, WNV infection rates north of 30° N, have been associated with increased temperatures [118,150,154,155,156,158,159,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,191,192,193]. An increase with increasing temperatures has often been found for JEV as well [16,194,195,196,197,198,199], as has SLEV [200,201].…”

Section: Viral Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

Ciota

Keyel

2019

Viruses

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We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

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“…The physiological function of the human body responds to changes in weather condition. Indeed the seasonal or periodic nature of outbreaks of some human diseases such as respiratory diseases suggests that climate conditions play an important role in the seasonal variations [7]. Most vectorborne diseases exhibit a seasonal pattern [8] which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Weather and Climatic Elements on the Incidence of Pneumonia in Kaduna South Local Government Area, North Western Nigeria

Ike¹

2019

EARTH

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This study assessed the relationship between weather and climatic elements on the incidence of pneumonia in Kaduna South Local Government Area, North Western Nigeria. The main objective of the study was to determine the incidences of pneumonia and assess its relationship with weather elements. This paper also reported on the seasonality of Weather parameters and how they can affect pneumonia occurrence in the study area. The data used were meteorological (Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature) and pneumonia records collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency and Government General Hospital, Kakuri respectively. Multiple regression model and seasonality metrices were employed in the analysis of the data to determine the strength of relationship between the weather parameters and the frequency of pneumonia outbreak. The model run indicated that the combined effect of temperature, rainfall and humidity significantly accounts for variations in Pneumonia occurrence at different level of probability. However the weather elements could only explain 16% of the variations in the incidence of Pneumonia in the study area for the period between 2008 and 2015. The examination of the seasonal occurrence revealed that pneumonia occurred mostly in the cold & wet season and the cold & dry seasons. The study concluded that weather elements play a role in the incidence of pneumonia in the study area and should be considered along with other factors in mitigating its occurrence.

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Improving the prediction of arbovirus outbreaks: A comparison of climate-driven models for West Nile virus in an endemic region of the United States

Cited by 41 publications

References 40 publications

A correlation study between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India

A correlation study between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

Effects of Weather and Climatic Elements on the Incidence of Pneumonia in Kaduna South Local Government Area, North Western Nigeria

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