Improving scenario methodology: theory and practice, introduction to the special issue

Wright, George; Meadows, Michelle; Tapinos, Stathis; O’Brien, Frances A.; Pyper, Neil

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.07.004

Cited by 23 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Strategic foresight activities vary in terms of purpose, structuring and approaches (Coates et al, 2010;O'Brien and Meadows, 2013;Rohrbeck, 2012;Rohrbeck and Gemünden, 2011;Wright et al, 2013aWright et al, , 2013b. Here we review the literature that is relevant to the main scope and interest of our paper: the value of strategic foresight -specifically scenario processes -with a particular emphasis on individual learning and cognition.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes

Rhisiart

Miller

Brooks

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes

Rhisiart

Miller

Brooks

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…However, we did not have the means to perform a full systematic literature search on scenario methodology. Thus, the literature search for scenario methodologies started with two main sources: 1) The 2013 special issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change on scenario methodology (Wright et al, 2013) and 2) The top five hits on "scenario development" using Google Scholar (Schoemaker, 1993, Bishop et al, 2007, Mahmoud et al, 2009, Westhoek et al, 2006, Van Notten et al, 2005. The Google Scholar settings included all academic articles, i.e.…”

Section: Literature Review -Scenario Development (Step 2)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring scenario development – a case study of two collaborative research projects

Fossum

Aarseth

Andersen

2019

IJMPB

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose -The paper explores scenario development (SD) as a method for engaging known challenges in collaborative research projects, i.e. SD is the construct under investigation.Design/methodology/approach -Criticism of the dominant, rational approach to project management (PM) and its underlying hypotheses highlights a considerable PM research gap for research projects (research problem). We undertake a six-step constructive research approach to investigate if SD (the construct) constitutes a fruitful method to support the management of collaborative research projects. A two-part literature review summarizes known challenges in collaborative research projects and introduces the history and application of SD methodology. The work includes participatory action research (PAR) in two case studies, constituting a qualitative research method.Findings -We found the SD method to be useful for structuring and analysing intuitive project processes. However, using SD in the management of single projects presents some fundamental challenges. SD, like PM, struggles with issues related to myopic decisions, a "predict and provide" attitude with clear aspects of path dependency in the project front-end as well as inconsistent and/or missing identification of success criteria among different stakeholders.Research limitations/implications -This paper does not provide any comprehensive, normative account of scenario techniques or compare SD with other foresight and future studies methods. Although PAR is in itself a research method that demands systematic description and execution, the focus of this paper is the overall constructive research approach.Practical implications -The paper offers a broadened repertoire of methods to describe and analyse project stakeholder situations (collaborative aspects) and to structure and balance the need for both rational and intuitive project processes (research aspects). The SD method also supports development of graphical storylines and facilitates the use of influence diagrams, event trees and cost/benefit analysis.Originality/value -Although PM literature contains several references to SD, the practical application of SD at single-project level has, to our knowledge, never been described in the PM literature.

show abstract

“…Thus, it has been used to derive backup data in emerging industries, which do not have enough data for quantitative forecasting (Bengisu & Nekhili, 2006;Gerdsri, 2003;Meesapawong et al, 2014); or to forecast the future of industries that need experts' opinion to support quantitative forecasting results, such as the tourism industry (Yong et al, 1989), and aerospace industry (English & Kernan, 1976). In addition, the Delphi approach can be combined with scenario planning because it is an effective tool to gain ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T foresights for an unpredictable future (Wright et al, 2013). Scenario planning is not forecasting of the most probable future but it creates a set of the plausible futures (Amer and Dain, 2013 …”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting mobile broadband traffic: Application of scenario analysis and Delphi method

Lee

Cho

Hong

et al. 2016

Expert Systems with Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Improving scenario methodology: theory and practice, introduction to the special issue

Cited by 23 publications

References 19 publications

Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes

Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes

Exploring scenario development – a case study of two collaborative research projects

Forecasting mobile broadband traffic: Application of scenario analysis and Delphi method

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About