Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain–Fritsch Scheme

Zheng, Yue; Alapaty, Kiran; Herwehe, Jerold A.; Genio, Anthony D. Del; Niyogi, Dev

doi:10.1175/mwr-d-15-0005.1

Cited by 192 publications

(165 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…1). A horizontal resolution of 2.5 km, 50 vertical levels, and an integration time step of 12 s is used in all WRF runs, which allow for deep moist convective systems with a relevant entity to be explicitly resolved (Weisman et al 1997;Bryan et al 2003;Roberts and Lean 2008;Zheng et al 2016). WRF forecasts span over 42 h, from 0000 UTC 11 October to 1800 UTC 12 October 2007.…”

Section: Meteorological Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the FlashFlood Event-Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Transformation-Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall-runoff transformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for diversity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies ...

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Section: Meteorological Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…Thus, the sensitivity of different microphysics schemes over the Indian monsoon rainfall needs to be evaluated, particularly for very high-resolution models (<10 km). More recently, Zheng et al [2016] identified that cloud microphysics alone was not sufficient to resolve convective processes at higher resolution in the WRF model. They compared high-resolution model simulations (grid increments of 9 km and 3 km) over the U.S. Ramage [1971].…”

Section: Numerical Models For Precipitation Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Sikder

Hossain

2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Some of the world's largest and flood‐prone river basins experience a seasonal flood regime driven by the monsoon weather system. Highly populated river basins with extensive rain‐fed agricultural productivity such as the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, and Mekong are examples of monsoon‐driven river basins. It is therefore appropriate to investigate how precipitation forecasts from numerical models can advance flood forecasting in these basins. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to evaluate downscaling of coarse‐resolution global precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. Sensitivity studies were conducted using the TOPSIS analysis to identify the likely best set of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes, and spatial resolution from a total set of 15 combinations. This identified best set can pinpoint specific parameterizations needing further development to advance flood forecasting in monsoon‐dominated regimes. It was found that the Betts‐Miller‐Janjic cumulus parameterization scheme with WRF Single‐Moment 5‐class, WRF Single‐Moment 6‐class, and Thompson microphysics schemes exhibited the most skill in the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna basins. Finer spatial resolution (3 km) without cumulus parameterization schemes did not yield significant improvements. The short‐listed set of the likely best microphysics‐cumulus parameterization configurations was found to also hold true for the Indus basin. The lesson learned from this study is that a common set of model parameterization and spatial resolution exists for monsoon‐driven seasonal flood regimes at least in South Asian river basins.

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“…In addition, high-resolution numerical simulations of local atmospheric flow in regions that include urban areas have begun to provide credible representations of the three-dimensional local atmospheric circulation on horizontal scales of several kilometers [4][5][6][7]. For this study, the WRF model developed at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is utilized.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Study on High-Resolution WRF Precipitation Forecast for a Heavy Rainfall Event

Jee

Kim

2017

Atmosphere

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A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a heavy rainfall case is configured and the performance of the precipitation forecasting is evaluated. Sensitivity tests were carried out by changing the model configuration, such as domain size, sea surface temperature (SST) data, initial conditions, and lead time. The numerical model employs one-way nesting with horizontal resolutions of 5 km and 1 km for the outer and inner domains, respectively. The model domain includes the capital city of Seoul and its suburban megacities in South Korea. The model performance is evaluated via statistical analysis using the correlation coefficient, deviation, and root mean squared error by comparing with observational data including, but not limited to, those from ground-based instruments. The sensitivity analysis conducted here suggests that SST data show negligible influence for a short range forecasting model, the data assimilated initial conditions show the more effective results rather than the non-assimilated high resolution initial conditions, and for a given domain size of the forecasting model, an appropriate outer domain size and lead time of <6 h for a 1-km high-resolution domain should be taken into consideration when optimizing the WRF configuration for regional torrential rainfall events around Seoul and its suburban area, Korea.

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Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain–Fritsch Scheme

Abstract: 2015: Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain-Fritsch Scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Cited by 192 publications

References 77 publications

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Sensitivity Study on High-Resolution WRF Precipitation Forecast for a Heavy Rainfall Event

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