Improving Early Warning System Indicators for Crisis Manifestations in the Russian Economy

Abstract

The study is aimed at determining the oscillators of crisis manifestations when the Russian economy tries to make transition to the path for accelerating technological development and forming an innovative economy. Short-term cycles were determined in the development of the Russian economy from 1995 to the first half of 2020 through the Fourier spectral analysis. Using the Granger test, causal relationships between the leading indicators of the economic crisis and the real GDP index in Russia were identified and substantiated. They reflect the influence of the key rate dynamics on the volume of lending, savings, investments, the yield on securities and the exchange rate; volumes of bank loans per the share of non-performing and bad loans and innovative development of the economy. Based on the constructed neural models of the oscillator influence on the level of real GDP in Russia, it was determined that the rapid growth of bank and mortgage lending, the devaluation of the ruble, a decreased volume of gross foreign investment and the level of innovative development predetermine crisis manifestations in the national economy. The lags of the influence of changes in the leading indicators of the economic crisis on the development of the economy were calculated. The results obtained can contribute to the effectiveness of the anti-crisis regulation strategy in Russia. They can serve as a basis for increasing the efficiency of long-term innovative development and creating appropriate conditions for increasing the scientific and technological potential of the country.

Early Warning System and Crisis Management

“…The general equilibrium in the modeled economy is formed by the adequate response of representative economic agents to current conditions, taking into account all possible expectations. Consequently, in the real-cycle model, the general equilibrium is stochastic, and the actual dynamics of economic development is governed by random shocks (Semin et al, 2020). In other words, the business cycle is the result of random or unexpected shocks.…”

“…The process of establishing complex systems for monitoring financial markets and early warning of crisis phenomena continues to be developed, by several international financial organizations, such as: IMF, World Bank, IOSCO (International Association of Securities Commissions), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) under the G20. (Semin et al, 2020).…”

The impact of Covid-19 on the quality of human capital for the economic development of Azerbaijan

“…One of the main factors is the level of human capital (Lusardi & Mitchell, 2014). Based on the twentieth century's experience, structural crises occur every few decades (in the 1930s and 1970s) and lead to a radical restructuring of socio-economic and geopolitical balances, currency configurations, and economic paradigms (Semin et al, 2020;Megits, Neskorodieva & Schuster, 2020). Each of the economic crises had its own characteristics.…”

Creating an Innovative Business Model for the Performance of Commercial Dental Clinics

“…It is required to create protocols and economic incentives to reduce violations associated with human factors, namely, the number of breakdowns of removable and fixed dentures, the number of citizens' appeals due to poor-quality treatment and prosthetics, the share of negative customer reviews on the Internet and social networks (messengers), and other types and factors that can harm the reputation and, ultimately, the CDO market value [17][18][19]. A preventive element should also be included in the system for assessing the quality of dental treatment, especially in the matter of preventing the development of caries [20][21][22].…”