Improving Burden of Disease and Source Attribution Estimates

Kowalcyk, Barbara; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Scallan, Elaine; Lamichhane, Archana P.; Havelaar, Arie H.; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92138-9_9

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…During outbreaks, cases arise from a combination of point source (e.g., ingesting contaminated food/water) and secondary (typically person-to-person) transmission [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 6 – 12 ]. There are knowledge gaps related to the relative contribution of different transmission routes, particularly person-to-person transmission (ppt) in outbreaks [ 13 , 14 ]. This may be due to challenges associated with ascertaining the source of infection for every case, and the high rate of under-reporting of enteric infections [ 13 , 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are knowledge gaps related to the relative contribution of different transmission routes, particularly person-to-person transmission (ppt) in outbreaks [ 13 , 14 ]. This may be due to challenges associated with ascertaining the source of infection for every case, and the high rate of under-reporting of enteric infections [ 13 , 14 ]. Food is a major source of transmission of VTEC infections, and ppt is estimated to cause 10–13% of VTEC infections overall, and approximately 20% of cases within an outbreak [ 11 , 15 – 17 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining the role of person-to-person transmission during a verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak in Ontario, Canada

et al. 2022

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Objective Person-to-person transmission can occur during outbreaks of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), however the impact of this transmission route is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the role of person-to-person transmission during a VTEC outbreak, and how targeting this route may reduce outbreak size. A deterministic compartmental model describing a VTEC outbreak was constructed and fit to data from a 2008 outbreak in Ontario, Canada. Using the best-fit model, simulations were run to calculate the: reduction in transmission rate after implementing interventions, proportion of cases infected through both transmission routes, and number of cases prevented by interventions. Latin hypercube sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the sensitivity of the outbreak size to the model parameters. Results Based on the best-fit model, ~ 14.25% of the cases likely arose due to person-to-person transmission. Interventions reduced this transmission rate by ~ 73%, causing a reduction in outbreak size of ~ 17% (47 cases). Sensitivity analysis showed that the model was highly sensitive to changes in all parameters of the model. The model demonstrates that person-to-person could be an important transmission route during VTEC outbreaks. Targeting this route of transmission through hand hygiene and work exclusions could reduce the final outbreak size.

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