Import Substitution Risk Management Considering Hartley Emergence Indicator

Abstract

Any project, especially in the field of import substitution, is subject to the risk of failure (non-implementation) for various reasons. At the same time, the process of import substitution has significant differences from innovative processes, associated, first of all, with the emergence of time and country risks. In this regard, the risk analysis is proposed to be carried out using a special rubricator of import substitution risk sources, created taking into account the specifics of a specific project. Since the statistics on import substitution projects implementation are rather scarce, especially if the substitution object is a unique hardware complex of a very high cost, then experts have to use methods of intellectual analysis, in particular, fuzzy inference algorithms. In this case, the elements of the rubricator are considered as linguistic variables characterizing the sources of risk. However, in the case of a complete or partial analysis of the entire rubricator, a systemic effect of an emergent increase in information about a possible risk arises. This is due to the fact that sources of risks can “work” in the sense of creating a risk situation, both individually and in combination. It is proposed to evaluate this effect using the Hartley indicator, which reflects how much the amount of information obtained during identifying one element of the system increases due to the systemic effect as a result of unification. Depending on the value of this indicator, two approaches can be used to assess the possibility of project risk: either the Sugeno fuzzy inference algorithm (if the value of the indicator is significant), or simpler methods (if the value of the indicator is not significant). The proposed approach to the analysis of the risks of import substitution was used by the authors when diagnosing the project of replacing ship power plants for modern small vessels of the coastal navigation zone.