Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

Abstract

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

“…In contrast, land‐use models outperformed climate models for 18 farmland bird species in the United Kingdom (Eglington & Pearce‐Higgins, ). Similarly, vegetation‐based species distribution models had superior performance than climate‐based models for 79 Spanish bird species (Seoane et al, ) and for three bird species in New Mexico (Friggens & Finch, ). Two studies focused on colonization and extinction rates found mixed results.…”

“…during the breeding season drive changes in bird distributions because inappropriate habitat will not provide sufficient food and shelter for breeding birds (Friggens & Finch, 2015;Iglecia, Collazo, & McKerrow, 2012). For the Eastern Wood Pewee, we defined appropriate habitats as deciduous forest, evergreen forest, and mixed forest (Hamel, 1992).…”

Land Use, anthropogenic disturbance, and riverine features drive patterns of habitat selection by a wintering waterbird in a semi-arid environment

“…Long-term perturbations facilitated by changes in land use, high demands placed on limited water resources, introduction of invasive species, and human-modification of the natural hydrological regime has made it harder to simultaneously fulfill the needs of humans and wildlife [ 5 , 15 ]. These environmental stressors have substantially changed both physiognomy and function of the MRGV and raised concern for the persistence of some fish and wildlife species [ 16 – 19 ].…”

Comportamiento reproductivo, forrajeo y uso de hábitat de Coccyzus ferrugineus (Cuculiformes: Cuculidae) en la Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

“…Coccyzus ferrugineus utiliza sitios costeros como áreas de forrajeo y anidación, probablemente porque tienen una elevada disponibilidad de presas a un costo energético bajo en comparación con áreas de mayor altitud, donde la vegetación es más densa y la búsqueda posiblemente más desgastante. Por estas mismas razones el ciclo reproductivo de C. americanus requiere hábitats húmedos (Russell & Holmes, 2015;Friggens & Finch, 2015).…”

“…Otras especies del género Coccyzus actualmente se encuentran amenazadas por invasión de especies alóctonas tanto vegetales como animales, así como por el cambio climático, que afecta negativamente a las presas de estas especies (Friggens & Finch, 2015). Por ello, estudios sobre la ecología de C. ferrugineus en base a los requerimientos de hábitat de la especie, así como de su densidad poblacional, son indispensables para categorizar las amenazas que le afectan y para poder ejercer un plan de manejo que incluya áreas de reproducción y programas de restauración ecológica (Woinarski et al, 2017).…”