Implication of repatriating migrant workers on COVID-19 spread and transportation requirements

Abstract

Nationwide lockdown for COVID-19 created an urgent demand for public transportation among migrant workers stranded at different parts of India to return to their native places. Arranging transportation could spike the number of COVID-19 infected cases. Hence, this paper investigates the potential surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 infection and assesses the train and bus fleet size required for the repatriating migrant workers. The expected to repatriate migrant worker population was obtained by forecasting the 2011 census data and comparing it with the information reported in the news media. A modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model was proposed to estimate the surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 patients in India's selected states with high outflux of migrants. The developed model considered combinations of different levels of the daily arrival rate of migrant workers, total migrant workers in need of transportation, and the origin of the trip dependent symptomatic cases on arrival. Reducing the daily arrival rate of migrant workers for states with very high outflux of migrants (i.e., Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) can help to lower the surge in confirmed and active cases. Nevertheless, it could create a disparity in the number of days needed to transport all repatriating migrant workers to the home states. Hence, travel arrangements for about 100,000 migrant workers per day to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, about 50,000 per day to Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 20,000 per day to Maharashtra and less than 20,000 per day to other states of India was recommended.

Impacts of COVID-19 on transportation: Summary and synthesis of interdisciplinary research

“…Socioeconomic and household factors including motor vehicle or motorcycle ownership as well as the presence of virtual services such as e-commerce, home delivery, ridesharing and other technological factors affect behavior in Jakarta as in wealthier countries ( Irawan et al, 2020 ). In countries such as India, government-imposed lockdowns created urgent need to transport stranded migrant workers back to hometown locations ( Maji et al, 2020 ). Accounting for the surge in cases using a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model, they estimate the train and bus fleet requirements to repatriate migrant workers.…”

Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries

“…Based on an observational study of several selected transportation stations in the Greater Accra region of Ghana between March 27 and 29, 2020, Bonful et al (2020) found that many people did not follow COVID-19 prevention measures (social distancing, handwashing) and argued that transport operators need support and guidance to enforce prevention measures. By building a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model, Maji et al (2020) estimated the train and bus fleet sizes required for transporting the repatriating migrant workers in several selected states with high outflux of migrants in India. They found that reducing the flow of migrant workers can help to lower the surge in confirmed and active infection cases.…”

Migrant workers occupational health research: an OMEGA-NET working group position paper

“…International migrants are commonly employed in construction, agriculture, hospitality, cleaning, transportation, healthcare and personal care sectors (Philippine Statistics Authority 2018 ; Maji et al 2020 ; Ruhs and Anderson 2010 ). Worldwide studies of migration have shown that the male migrant workers are employed in agriculture, construction, the food sector, transport and material moving occupations, while the majority of migrant women workers are employed in the service sectors, such as domestic work, cleaning, catering, hospitality, and the healthcare and manufacturing sectors (Foley and Piper 2020 ; González and Irastorza 2007 ; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 ).…”

“…Migrant workers have been studied during the COVID-19 pandemic; they are concentrated in high-risk people-facing industries; hence, there is an inequality in workers’ risk of contracting COVID-19 (Maji et al 2020 ). During the first wave of COVID-19, health care professionals and transportation workers were found to be at the highest risk in many countries.…”