Impacts of long‐range transport of global pollutants and precursor gases on U.S. air quality under future climatic conditions

Huang, H. C.; Lin, J. C.; Tao, Zhining; Choi, Hyun Il; Patten, Kenneth O.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Xu, Min; Zhu, Jiamin; Liang, Xin; Williams, A.; Caughey, Michael; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Wang, Julian

doi:10.1029/2007jd009469

Cited by 22 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In turn, the regional models couple these global conditions to better resolved terrain, land use, and emissions affecting ozone formation and fate within the US. The model downscaling between global and regional models had been recently discussed in the literature (Tong and Mauzerall, 2006;Huang et al 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

et al. 2009

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Abstract.A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990-1999 as a present-day base case and 2045-2054 as a future case. For the current decade, the daily maximum 8-h moving average (DM8H) ozone mixing ratio distributions for spring, summer and fall showed good agreement with observations. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NO x (NO+NO 2 ) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 6% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US Correspondence to: B. Lamb (blamb@wsu.edu) emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045-2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard at least once a year increased by 38%. In addition, the length of the ozone season was projected to increase with more pollution episodes in the spring and fall. For selected urban areas, the system projected a higher number of pollution events per year and these events had more consecutive days when DM8H ozone exceed 75 ppbv.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

et al. 2009

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“…Note that our nested model resolution is still relatively coarse compared to some other regional model studies (e.g., Huang et al, 2008;Lin et al, 2009;Kuhlmann et al, 2015;Terrenoire et al, 2015); our future studies will take advantage of the new generation GEOS-Chem nested models at 0.3125 • long. × 0.25 • lat.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is particularly true for a relatively long simulation (1 year or more) that is necessary to quantify the effect of small-scale processes in different seasons and to allow for a high-resolution model spin-up period. Many high-resolution regional models have also been developed that better simulate the smallscale processes in the targeted domains (e.g., Huang et al, 2008;Huang et al, 2010). Most of these regional models take the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) of chemicals from a coarse-resolution global model without affecting the global model simulation, i.e., a typical "one-way" nesting setup.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistryclimate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O 3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O 3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5 • long. × 2 • lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667 • long. × 0.5 • lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs.

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“…In the US, a combined effort between the Environmental Protection Agency and the academic community resulted in a set of modeling studies that adopted a variety of modeling methods (Hogrefe et al, 2004;Leung and Gustafson, 2005;Liang et al, 2006;Steiner et al, 2006;Tagaris et al, 2007;Liao et al, 2006;Adams, 2006, 2008;Huang et al, , 2008Nolte et al, 2008;Wu et al, 2008a, b;Chen et al, 2009b;Avise et al, 2009;Dawson et al, 2009). These US investigations based their current and future climate realizations on the results of GCMs using the various IPCC emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2007) projected to the 2050s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

et al. 2015

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Abstract.To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semihemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, presentday global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM 2.5 levels between 4 and 10 µg m −3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM 2.5 mass concentrations.

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Impacts of long‐range transport of global pollutants and precursor gases on U.S. air quality under future climatic conditions

Cited by 22 publications

References 32 publications

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

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