Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production

Free, Christopher M.; Thorson, James T.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Oken, Kiva L.; Wiedenmann, John; Jensen, Olaf P.

doi:10.1126/science.aau1758

Cited by 378 publications

(305 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…This suggests that changes in suitable habitat areas resulting from the rising sea temperatures observed throughout the northeast Atlantic shelf (González‐Pola et al ) are at least partly responsible for the large scale distribution changes observed here. Such interpretation is consistent with the warming‐induced distribution shifts documented for plankton assemblages with different temperatures preferences throughout the north Atlantic (Beaugrand et al ), which encompasses the study area considered here, and is further corroborated by the fact that populations at the warm ends of their thermal niches were more vulnerable than those at the cool ends of their thermal niches which often benefited from historical warming (Free et al ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…From interpretation is consistent with the warming-induced distribution shifts documented for plankton assemblages with different temperatures preferences throughout the north Atlantic (Beaugrand et al 2009), which encompasses the study area considered here, and is further corroborated by the fact that populations at the warm ends of their thermal niches were more vulnerable than those at the cool ends of their thermal niches which often benefited from historical warming (Free et al 2019). The cross-species synthesis also showed that, compared with species showing no trends in abundance, species with increasing abundance trends showed more increases and fewer decreases in spatial occurrence, while species with a decreasing abundance showed more decreases and less increases in spatial occurrence.…”

Section: Speciessupporting

confidence: 90%

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Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries

et al. 2020

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Changes in fish distribution are being observed across the globe. In Europe's Common Fisheries Policy, the share of the catch of each fish stock is split among management areas using a fixed allocation key known as ‘Relative Stability’: in each management area, member states get the same proportion of the total catch each year. That proportion is largely based on catches made by those member states in the 1970s. Changes in distribution can, therefore, result in a mismatch between quota shares and regional abundances within management areas, with potential repercussions for the status of fish stocks and the fisheries that depend on them. Assessing distribution changes is crucial to ensure adequate management and sustainable exploitation of our fish resources. We analysed scientific survey data using a three‐tiered analytical approach to provide, for the first time, an overview of changes in distribution for 19 northeast Atlantic fish species encompassing 73 commercial stocks over 30 yr. All species have experienced changes in distribution, five of which did so across management areas. A cross‐species analysis suggested that shifts in areas of suitable thermal habitat, and density‐dependent use of these areas, are at least partly responsible for the observed changes. These findings challenge the current use of relative stability to allocate quotas.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Speciessupporting

confidence: 90%

Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries

et al. 2020

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“…Climate change is already negatively impacting many taxaincluding global fisheries that are critical food resources for a growing human population (Free et al, 2019;Pacifici et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Walls

Barichivich

Chandler

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.

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“…It is not that ocean chemists have neglected temperature terms but that far too often these are ad hoc fits of temperature in degrees Celsius rather than the application of even the simplest laws of chemical physics. Economically critical fisheries are well observed to be moving poleward at a remarkable rate (Murawski, ; Perry et al, ) driven by temperature with consequences for food security; the impact on overall fisheries production is still uncertain (Free et al, ) but tends to be negative. The scientific challenge here is that these are retrospective observations—the fish, and the food they eat, migrate poleward, and the change is then documented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Molecular Basis for Understanding the Impacts of Ocean Warming

Brewer

2019

Reviews of Geophysics

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A grand challenge for ocean chemists in the years ahead lies in the need to tackle the chemical consequences of ocean warming with the same rigor and intensity that has been brought to bear on the physical chemistry of ocean acidification. For over 50 years ocean chemistry has been dominated by the study of pH‐dependent processes, but to address the biogeochemical impacts of ocean warming, we will need to rapidly advance the discipline of ocean chemical physics where temperature is the master variable and the basic unit is the Joule. Just as it would be impossible to understand the ocean CO2 system without awareness of the essential pH‐dependent CO2‐HCO3‐CO3 equilibria, so too is it impossible to describe ocean chemical physics without knowledge of the bimolecular structure of water. Water, and water in sea water, is composed of a complex of dominant hydrogen bonded forms, and the singlet molecular H2O species, in temperature‐controlled equilibrium and the ratio of these forms, can now be precisely determined. The physical properties of sea water are traditionally described by fitting an ad hoc collection of coefficients to experimental data. They are more accurately described as temperature and pressure perturbations of the underlying molecular equilibrium state. Ocean oxygen consumption rates are accurately described as an Arrhenius function, and not as an exponential function of depth as has been the tradition for over 50 years. We do not now have good correlation between ocean models and observed warming and oxygen declines, and full anoxia with the emergence of hydrogen sulfide over large regions of the ocean is possible. The parallel ocean invasions of heat and fossil fuel CO2 must be combined to estimate their full impact.

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Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production

Cited by 378 publications

References 59 publications

Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries

Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

The Molecular Basis for Understanding the Impacts of Ocean Warming

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