Decreasing body size has been proposed as a universal response to increasing temperatures. The physiology behind the response is well established for ectotherms inhabiting aquatic environments: as higher temperatures decrease the aerobic capacity, individuals with smaller body sizes have a reduced risk of oxygen deprivation. However, empirical evidence of this response at the scale of communities and ecosystems is lacking for marine fish species. Here, we show that over a 40-year period six of eight commercial fish species in the North Sea examined underwent concomitant reductions in asymptotic body size with the synchronous component of the total variability coinciding with a 1-2 °C increase in water temperature. Smaller body sizes decreased the yield-per-recruit of these stocks by an average of 23%. Although it is not possible to ascribe these phenotypic changes unequivocally to temperature, four aspects support this interpretation: (i) the synchronous trend was detected across species varying in their life history and life style; (ii) the decrease coincided with the period of increasing temperature; (iii) the direction of the phenotypic change is consistent with physiological knowledge; and (iv) no cross-species synchrony was detected in other species-specific factors potentially impacting growth. Our findings support a recent model-derived prediction that fish size will shrink in response to climate-induced changes in temperature and oxygen. The smaller body sizes being projected for the future are already detectable in the North Sea.
Aim The negative correlation between temperature and body size of ectothermic animals (broadly known as the temperature‐size rule or TSR) is a widely observed pattern, especially in aquatic organisms. Studies have claimed that the TSR arises due to decreased oxygen solubility and increasing metabolic costs at warmer temperatures, whereby oxygen supply to a large body becomes increasingly difficult. However, mixed empirical evidence has led to a controversy about the mechanisms affecting species’ size and performance under different temperatures. We review the main competing genetic, physiological and ecological explanations for the TSR and suggest a roadmap to move the field forward. Location Global. Taxa Aquatic ectotherms. Time period 1980–present. Results We show that current studies cannot discriminate among alternative hypotheses and none of the hypotheses can explain all TSR‐related observations. To resolve this impasse, we need experiments and field‐sampling programmes that specifically compare alternative mechanisms and formally consider energetics related to growth costs, oxygen supply and behaviour. We highlight the distinction between evolutionary and plastic mechanisms, and suggest that the oxygen limitation debate should separate processes operating on short, decadal and millennial time‐scales. Conclusions Despite decades of research, we remain uncertain whether the TSR is an adaptive response to temperature‐related physiological (enzyme activity) or ecological changes (food, predation and other mortality), or a response to constraints operating at a cellular level (oxygen supply and associated costs). To make progress, ecologists, physiologists, modellers and geneticists should work together to develop a cross‐disciplinary research programme that integrates theory and data, explores time‐scales over which the TSR operates, and assesses limits to adaptation or plasticity. We identify four questions for such a programme. Answering these questions is crucial given the widespread impacts of climate change and reliance of management on models that are highly dependent on accurate representation of ecological and physiological responses to temperature.
An integrated ecosystem model including fishing and the impact of rising temperatures, relative to species’ thermal ranges, was used to assess the cumulative effect of future climate change and sustainable levels of fishing pressure on selected target species. Historically, important stocks of cod and whiting showed declining trends caused by high fisheries exploitation and strong top-down control by their main predators (grey seals and saithe). In a no-change climate scenario these stocks recovered under sustainable management scenarios due to the cumulative effect of reduced fishing and predation mortalities cascading through the food-web. However, rising temperature jeopardised boreal stenothermal species: causing severe declines in grey seals, cod, herring and haddock, while eurythermal species were not affected. The positive effect of a higher optimum temperature for whiting, in parallel with declines of its predators such as seals and cod, resulted in a strong increase for this stock under rising temperature scenarios, indicating a possible change in the contribution of stocks to the overall catch by the end of the century. These results highlight the importance of including environmental change in the ecosystem approach to achieve sustainable fisheries management.
Many commercial fish stocks are beginning to recover under more sustainable exploitation regimes. In this study, we document the temporal and spatial changes in one remarkable example of stock recovery: northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius). Analysing data from several scientific surveys, we document a dramatic increase in estimates of biomass between 2004 and 2011 throughout the larger area now occupied by the stock. The largest increase occurred in the North Sea, where hake have been largely absent for over 50 years. Spatio‐temporally resolved commercial landings show that high densities occur in the North Sea only between April and September, suggesting a density‐dependent seasonal habitat expansion to suitable temperature and depth conditions. These changes have implications for the management of the stock which are discussed. Notably, if discards are banned as part of management revisions, the relatively low quota for hake in the North Sea will be a limiting factor (the so‐called ‘choke’ species) which may result in a premature closure of the entire demersal mixed fishery in the North Sea, jeopardizing many commercial fisheries in the region. This example of the unforeseen consequences of improved stewardship highlight the need for a more holistic, regional and responsive approach to managing our marine ecosystems.
Changes in fish distribution are being observed across the globe. In Europe's Common Fisheries Policy, the share of the catch of each fish stock is split among management areas using a fixed allocation key known as ‘Relative Stability’: in each management area, member states get the same proportion of the total catch each year. That proportion is largely based on catches made by those member states in the 1970s. Changes in distribution can, therefore, result in a mismatch between quota shares and regional abundances within management areas, with potential repercussions for the status of fish stocks and the fisheries that depend on them. Assessing distribution changes is crucial to ensure adequate management and sustainable exploitation of our fish resources. We analysed scientific survey data using a three‐tiered analytical approach to provide, for the first time, an overview of changes in distribution for 19 northeast Atlantic fish species encompassing 73 commercial stocks over 30 yr. All species have experienced changes in distribution, five of which did so across management areas. A cross‐species analysis suggested that shifts in areas of suitable thermal habitat, and density‐dependent use of these areas, are at least partly responsible for the observed changes. These findings challenge the current use of relative stability to allocate quotas.
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