Impacts of Demographic Trends on US Household Size and Structure

Jiang, Leiwen; O’Neill, Brian C.

doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00186.x

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Population aging will happen in both developed and developing nations, with the proportion of the elderly (aged 60+) worldwide increasing from 10% in 2005 to 22% in 2050 (UNPD 2007). Furthermore, household projections for major developed and developing countries also show that an increasing proportion of these populations will be living in smaller households (Dalton et al 2008;Jiang and O'Neill 2007;Zeng et al 2008). …”

Section: Improving Understanding Of Demographic Impacts On Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?

Jiang

Hardee

2010

Popul Res Policy Rev

Self Cite

127

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Section: Improving Understanding Of Demographic Impacts On Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?

Jiang

Hardee

2010

Popul Res Policy Rev

Self Cite

127

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“…We modified household size (roughly family size) to adjust for assumed changes in demographic characteristics (Table S1). For example, SRES A1 and B1 assume smaller household sizes (reduction by 15%), whereas scenarios B2 and baseline are not changed and A2 assumes a 15% increase in household size (25). The changes in household size correspond to changes in fertility rates assumed under the different storylines.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

Bierwagen

Theobald²,

Pyke³

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

201

156

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Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available.urbanization | land planning | water quality L and-use and land-cover change are recognized to have global consequences (1) and demographic trends drive land development, including residential housing, which define many landscapes (2). However, it remains challenging to develop a deeper understanding of the consequences of these changes because most urban-growth models that can incorporate policy drivers are limited to local and regional scales (e.g., ref. 3, but see ref. 4). This gap limits the effectiveness of integrated assessments of global change impacts, particularly to assess the combined effects of land use and climate change on environmental endpoints. Moreover, in this context it is important for scenarios of growth and development to be consistent with the assumptions used to develop global climate-change scenarios and storylines (5-7).Land-use change plays a central role in determining the consequences of climate change for people and the environment (8, 9), and has consequences for many environmental endpoints, such as water and air quality (10-12). These complex interactions influence the condition of resources regulated under the Clean Water and Clean Air Acts and are important considerations to include in planning and policy analyses. For example, changes in water quality and effects on aquatic ecosystems have a strong linkage with impervious surface cover associated with development (13). Here we prov...

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“…Somewhat less straightforward is a possible link between the number of young children and household structure through fertility, as demonstrated by Jiang and O'Neill (2007). The impact on partnered households caused by fertility is not very big, given that COH and MAR represent households both with and without children.…”

Section: ⁄ ⁄ ⁄mentioning

confidence: 99%