Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada

Crossman, Jill; Bishop, Kevin; Oni, S. K.; Whitehead, Paul; Jin, Li; Butterfield, D.; Baulch, Helen M.; Dillon, Peter J.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2012.11.003

Cited by 109 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Crossman et al (2013), for instance, applied two IPCC SRES scenarios, A1b and A2, to a southern Ontario watershed, with statistically downscaled temperatures and precipitation using the CGCM3 climate model and the HBV-INCA-P hydrological and water quality model. Sulis et al (2011) applied CRCM climate data with bias corrected with the delta method to the CATHY hydrological model to simulate snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the des Anglais watershed in southern Que´bec.…”

Section: Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have looked at the implications of hydrological changes on erosion and NPS nutrient pollution in Que´bec (Dayyani et al 2012) and other regions with similar climate conditions (Bouraoui et al 2002;Arheimer et al 2005;Booty et al 2005;Jeppensen et al 2009;Pierson et al 2010;Crossman et al 2013). Some of these studies used climate data from the Regional Climate Model or Global Climate Model to drive physically based impact models such as SWAT (Bouraoui et al 2002;Rahman et al 2010), HBV with INCA-P (Crossman et al 2013), AGNPS (Booty et al 2005), and CATHY (Sulis et al 2011).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Some of these studies used climate data from the Regional Climate Model or Global Climate Model to drive physically based impact models such as SWAT (Bouraoui et al 2002;Rahman et al 2010), HBV with INCA-P (Crossman et al 2013), AGNPS (Booty et al 2005), and CATHY (Sulis et al 2011). The climate data utilized are typically downscaled with sophisticated statistical methods and/or monthly mean changes (deltas) calculated between two periods of simulated data (future vs. control) and applied on daily observed precipitation and temperatures.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, projections by Pierson et al (2010) showed minimal differences in annual TP loads but significant changes in TP delivery timing due to greater runoff during winter and a shift of snowmelt earlier in the year in Sweden and Finland. Crossman et al (2013) assessed changes in hydrological regime and water quality of the Black River in southern Ontario using a combination of the HBV and INCA-P models driven by statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 3 (CGCM3) for two greenhouse gas emission (GHGe) scenarios for the period 2001Á2100. Results from this study showed greater winter flows and earlier snowmelt by the end of the century attributable to an increase in rainfall and temperature during winter.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…To assess climate change impacts and their associated uncertainties it is common practice to inject within impact models a range of potential temperature and precipitation changes (Boeé t al. 2009;Boyer et al 2010;Crossman et al 2013). The range should be as wide as possible and integrating several simulations constructed with different models, GHGe and parameterization choices ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

et al. 2015

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. 2015. Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Que´bec. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 337Á358. The impacts of climate change on water quality in the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads into the northern arm of Lake Champlain, were simulated for the time horizon 2041Á2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) customized to Que´bec agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climate data simulated with the Fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. Potential mean climate-induced changes in sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen yield projected by these scenarios were then analyzed for the 2050 horizon. In addition, the impacts of the different sources of climate projection uncertainty were assessed by comparing climate model initial conditions, and climate model physical structure effects on the hydrochemical projections. Only one climate scenario projected a significant increase in mean annual total phosphorus [10 metrics tons (t) yr (1 or 14%] and total nitrogen (260 t yr (1 or 17%) loads. However, when shorter time spans (seasonal and monthly scales) were considered, several significant changes were detected, especially in winter. Sediment and nutrient loadings, in winter, were predicted to become three to four times higher than current levels. These increases were attributed to a greater vulnerability of soils to erosion in winter due to the decrease in the snowpack, early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events, and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures.

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Section: Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

et al. 2015

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The effectiveness and resilience of phosphorus management practices in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario, Canada

et al. 2016

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Uncertainty surrounding future climate makes it difficult to have confidence that current nutrient management strategies will remain effective. This study used monitoring and modeling to assess current effectiveness (% phosphorus reduction) and resilience (defined as continued effectiveness under a changing climate) of best management practices (BMPs) within five catchments of the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario. The Integrated Catchment Phosphorus model (INCA‐P) was used, and monitoring data were used to calibrate and validate a series of management scenarios. To assess current BMP effectiveness, models were run over a baseline period 1985–2014 with and without management scenarios. Climate simulations were run (2070–2099), and BMP resilience was calculated as the percent change in effectiveness between the baseline and future period. Results demonstrated that livestock removal from water courses was the most effective BMP, while manure storage adjustments were the least. Effectiveness varied between catchments, influenced by the dominant hydrological and nutrient transport pathways. Resilience of individual BMPs was associated with catchment sensitivity to climate change. BMPs were most resilient in catchments with high soil water storage capacity and small projected changes in frozen‐water availability and in soil moisture deficits. Conversely, BMPs were less resilient in catchments with larger changes in spring melt magnitude and in overland flow proportions. Results indicated that BMPs implemented are not always those most suited to catchment flow pathways, and a more site‐specific approach would enhance prospects for maintaining P reduction targets. Furthermore, BMP resilience to climate change can be predicted from catchment physical properties and present‐day hydrochemical sensitivity to climate forcing.

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Impact of evapotranspiration process representation on runoff projections from conceptual rainfall‐runoff models

Guo

Westra

Maier

2017

Water Resources Research

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Conceptual rainfall‐runoff models are commonly used to estimate potential changes in runoff due to climate change. The development of these models has generally focused on reproducing runoff characteristics, with less scrutiny on other important processes such as the conversion from potential evapotranspiration (PET) to actual evapotranspiration (AET). This study uses three conceptual rainfall‐runoff models (GR4J, AWBM, and IHACRES_CMD) and five catchments in climatologically different regions of Australia to explore the role of ET process representation on the sensitivity of runoff to plausible future changes in PET. The changes in PET were simulated using the Penman‐Monteith model and by perturbing each of the driving variables (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind) separately. Surprisingly, the results showed the potential of a more than sevenfold difference in runoff sensitivity per unit change in annual average PET, depending on both the rainfall‐runoff model and the climate variable used to perturb PET. These differences were largely due to different ways used to convert PET to AET in the conceptual rainfall‐runoff models, with particular dependencies on the daily wet/dry status, as well as the seasonal variations in store levels. By comparing the temporal patterns in simulated AET with eddy‐covariance‐based observations at two of the study locations, we highlighted some unrealistic behavior in the simulated AET from AWBM. Such process‐based evaluations are useful for scrutinizing the representation of physical processes in alternative conceptual rainfall‐runoff models, which can be particularly useful for selecting models for projecting runoff under a changing climate.

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Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada

Cited by 109 publications

References 44 publications

Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

The effectiveness and resilience of phosphorus management practices in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario, Canada

Impact of evapotranspiration process representation on runoff projections from conceptual rainfall‐runoff models

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