Impacts of climate change on cotton yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data

Chen, Chao; Pang, Yanmei; Pan, Xuebiao; Zhang, Lizhen

doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4082-7

Cited by 32 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Changes in DRT have both positive and negative impacts on crop production [8,10,26,28,41]. Increasing DTR is responsible for increasing respiration rate during nighttime that decreases the crop yield.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh

et al. 2017

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Background: Inconsistency in climate regimes of rainfall and temperature is a source of biotic and abiotic stresses in agricultural systems worldwide. Several studies from Bangladesh report that this variability is a cause of poor yield potential and crop failure. This study investigates the impact of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity for different ecosystems in Bangladesh. Three ecosystems under investigation include: dry (Rajshahi), terrace (Mymensingh) and coastal (Barisal). Results:The terrace ecosystem recorded the highest rainfall, followed by coastal and dry ecosystems. The temperature variation, both maximum and minimum, showed an increasing trend; however, the incremental rate was higher in case of minimum temperature. Monsoon rainfall showed an increasing trend, while dry season (November to March) decreased slightly. The climatic variations and impacts were captured using a standardized precipitation index (SPI), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and rice productivity index (RPI). The rainfed rice crop (aman) observed a significant trend between RPI and seasonal SPI, and between RPI and seasonal DTR. Overall, the SPI indicated the prevalence of frequent dry and wet periods and DTR recorded a decreasing trend. The multiple regression analysis identified a significant correlation between RPI, SPI and DTR accounting for 41, 45 and 49% of yield variability in dry, terrace and coastal ecosystems, respectively. Conclusion:Rainfall has shifted with an increasing trend during monsoon and almost static during other seasons. Rice production, especially rainfed rice, is at risk due to frequent drought and decreasing DTR. Stress-tolerant rice varieties requiring less irrigation water and survive at high temperature should be introduced. Research on rescheduling crop calendar and cropping pattern is necessary to mitigate the adverse climatic conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the ecosystems, the dry region reported the highest production value for all kinds of rice: 50. 8 …”

Section: Crop Productivity Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh

et al. 2017

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“…Many recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop production 2–4 . Lobell et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is projected to dramatically affect crop production across broad regions of the world in the 21 st century 1 . Many recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop production 2 – 4 . Lobell et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of cotton phenology to climate change on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012

Wang

Chen

Xing

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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To identify countermeasures for the impacts of climate change on crop production, exploring the changes in crop phenology and their relationship to climate change is required. This study was based on cotton phenology and climate data collected from 13 agro-meteorological experimental stations and 13 meteorological stations on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012. Spatiotemporal trends in the cotton phenology data, lengths of the different growing phases, mean temperatures, and rainfall were analyzed. These results indicated that warming accelerated cotton growth, advanced cotton phenology, and shortened the growing period of cotton. However, harvest dates were significantly delayed at 8 (61.5%) stations, the length of both the flowering-boll opening and boll opening-harvest periods increased at 10 (77.0%) stations, and a positive correlation was found between the mean temperature and the length of the whole growing period at 10 (77.0%) stations. Therefore, cotton practices and cultivars on the North China Plain should be adjusted accordingly. The response of cotton phenology to climate change, as shown here, can further guide the development of options for the adaptation of cotton production in the near future.Climate change is projected to dramatically affect crop production across broad regions of the world in the 21 st century 1 . Many recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop production 2-4 . Lobell et al. 2 reported that each degree day above 30 °C decreased the African maize yield by 1% under optimal precipitation conditions and by 1.7% under drought conditions. Moreover, Liu et al. 3 showed that over the past 40 years, increased temperatures have caused the northward expansion of the northern limit of maize in Northeast China. Chen et al. 4 studied the impact of climate change on cotton yields in China, and the results showed that climate change decreased cotton yields. However, beneficial effects were found in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China from 1961 to 2010. Therefore, the potential impact of climate change on the development and productivity of field crops is of great concern and has been evaluated extensively through simulation models, statistical analyses, and field experiments [5][6][7] .Phenology refers to periodic life-cycle events and is important for plant survival and reproduction 8 . Plant phenology is strongly controlled by short-and long-term climate variability; consequently, phenological shifts have been among the strongest biological indicators of climate change 9, 10 . Phenological studies significantly contributed the conclusions of the International Panel of Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fourth Assessment Report that "there is very high confidence of biological responses to climate change, based on more evidences from a wider range of species" 11 . Therefore, investigations of the spatiotemporal changes in crop phenology and the relationships between phenology and climate change are important for understanding the processes and mecha...

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“…Gupta et al [13] used the method of combining the GCM and a crop model to predict the change in rice yield in India. Chen et al [14] calculated the linear trend of time and found that an increase in temperature increased the national single-season rice yield by 11%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on Maize Yield in the Growing Season: A Case Study of the Songliao Plain Maize Belt

Guna

Zhang

Tong

et al. 2019

Water

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Based on the 1965–2017 climate data of 18 meteorological stations in the Songliao Plain maize belt, the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) data, and the 1998–2017 maize yield data, the drought change characteristics in the study area were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Mann–Kendall mutation test; furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors, drought index, and maize climate yield was determined. Finally, the maize climate yields under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios were predicted. The results revealed that: (1) from 1965 to 2017, the study area experienced increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and intensifying drought trends; (2) the yield of the study area showed a downward trend from 1998 to 2017. Furthermore, the climate yield was negatively correlated with temperature, positively correlated with precipitation, and positively correlated with SPEI-1 and SPEI-3; and (3) under the 1.5 °C and the 2.0 °C global warming scenarios, the temperature and the precipitation increased in the maize growing season. Furthermore, under the studied global warming scenarios, the yield changes predicted by multiple regression were −7.7% and −15.9%, respectively, and the yield changes predicted by one-variable regression were −12.2% and −21.8%, respectively.

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Impacts of climate change on cotton yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data

Cited by 32 publications

References 27 publications

Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh

Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh

Response of cotton phenology to climate change on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012

Effect of Climate Change on Maize Yield in the Growing Season: A Case Study of the Songliao Plain Maize Belt

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