Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Abstract

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

“…uk/22568). Coupled with these projections of sea-level rise and storms, the coastal stakeholder community is presented with an array of approaches for probabilistic risk assessment linked to different emissions scenarios and climate system responses (Nicholls, 2004;Dawson et al, 2005;Hall et al, 2006;Purvis et al, 2008;Nicholls et al, 2011;Lewis et al, 2011). Consequently, it is essential to fully engage with in- formation needs of coastal decision makers and stakeholders in designing accessible and easy-to-use geospatial tools that enable a range of climate change scenarios to be explored in an open and informed way (de Moel et al, 2009;Dawson et al, 2011;Wadey et al, 2013).…”

Climate impacts on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure

“…Larger waves (or more persistent storms) are also likely to drive coastal morphology change and, particularly where backshores are constrained, lower beach level, further exacerbating the impact of sea level rise. Over the medium to long term, any growth in offshore wave heights is therefore likely to be expressed at the coast (Hall et al, 2006). These issues are discussed in more detail below.…”

From climate research to climate compatible development: experiences and progress in the Netherlands

“…Scenarios were used regarding flood risk reduction measures at the national level (Vellinga et al 2008(Vellinga et al , 2009Te Linde et al 2011;Kabat et al 2009) and at the level of regional water systems in urban areas situated both below (Brink et al 2013;Moel et al 2013;GrootReichwein et al 2013) and above sea level ). Many of these research projects were inspired by the risk approach (Vlek 2010a, b;Hall et al 2006), which is also a characteristic of climate compatible development and climate proofing. The risk approach is also adopted by the national Delta programme.…”