Impacts of climate change on global total and urban runoff

Gray, Laura C.; Zhao, Lei; Stillwell, Ashlynn S.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129352

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…On the other hand, an increase in afforestation affects surface evapotranspiration, soil moisture conditions, and the interception of surface vegetation, thereby altering the runoff regime (Woldesenbet et al, 2017). In addition, GDP and population growth can reduce runoff (Gray et al, 2023). As demonstrated by this study, the acceleration of urbanization and population growth leads to increased water demand for industrial, agricultural, and domestic use, which reduces runoff.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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A thorough understanding of the complex response of hydrologic processes to latent factors is of great significance for regional soil erosion and water resources management. However, what kind of mediation effect exists between hydrologic processes and latent factors is not yet clear, especially in heterogeneous karst regions. In this study, the elasticity coefficient method and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS‐SEM) were used to investigate the mechanism of latent factors on hydrologic processes in karst basins and to explore the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes. The results show that the runoff of Yeji River Basin decreased during 1997–2004, but increased or stabilized since 2005. On the monthly scale, the runoff in July and December showed an ‘inverted V‐shaped’ change. Both elasticity coefficient method and PLS‐SEM showed that climate change contributed the most to runoff (direct effect accounted for 37.94% ~ 61.41%). In PLS‐SEM, the total effect sizes of latent factors on runoff were as follows: climate change (0.751 ~ 0.963) > vegetation (0.296 ~ 0.740) > karst characteristics factors (KCF) (−0.454 ~ −0.563) > human activities (−0.036 ~ −0.528) > land use and cover change (LUCC) (−0.036 ~ −0.205). In the typical karst basin, two mediation pathways have been determined: human activities‐vegetation/LUCC‐runoff, where vegetation and LUCC had a mediation effect of relationships between human activities and runoff; climate change‐KCF‐runoff, where KCF had a mediation effect of relationships between climate change and runoff. Moreover, PLS‐SEM is a preferred method to decouple the complex responses of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins to climate change and human activities than the elasticity coefficient method. This study conducted further research and exploration on the mechanism of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins, and provided valuable theoretical references for grassroots water managers to cope with water resources management under the context of future climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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“…Global climate change is projected to elevate both persistent stress (such as prolonged heat stress and water scarcity) (Gray et al, 2023;He et al, 2021;IPCC, 2021;Knutti & Sedlacek, 2013;J. Li et al, 2018;Patz et al, 2005) and the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes (such as heatwaves, extreme rainfall, flooding, and droughts) (Fischer et al, 2021;Horton et al, 2016;Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004;Pal & Eltahir, 2016;Zheng et al, 2021;Zscheischler et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representing dynamic urban land change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Fang

Zhao

Oleson³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Urbanization (urban land change) alters local and regional climate through biophysical and biogeochemical processes and has broader climate impacts through atmospheric feedbacks. Despite its critical climate impacts, urban areas have rarely been explicitly represented in global-scale Earth system models, and physically-based transient urban representations are missing as well. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) has a physically based urban land parameterization – Community Land Model Urban (CLMU) – that is sufficiently detailed to represent the properties and processes in the urban environment. We improve this model by implementing a dynamic urban scheme to represent transient land use due to urbanization. Leveraging existing urbanization projection datasets, the new scheme allows urban extent to be updated annually during a climate simulation while conserving energy and mass balance during the transition. Land-only simulation results confirm the robustness of the new dynamic urban scheme and demonstrate the direct local climate effects induced by urban land expansion. In the appendix of this paper, we also document two recent improvements to the building energy scheme of CLMU.

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“…Many rivers worldwide are experiencing substantial declines in water flow, with some completely drying. This has resulted in severe effects on humans and the environment [5,6]. Climate change has had a direct impact on precipitation patterns, affected water and sand transport systems, and had a considerable impact on regional ecological security [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Vegetation Response to Runoff in the Ebinur Lake Basin

Yao,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2023

Forests

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The response of spatial and temporal vegetation changes to runoff is a complex process involving the interaction of several factors and mechanisms. Timely and accurate vegetation and runoff change information is an important reference for the water cycle and water resource security. The Ebinur Lake Basin is representative of arid areas worldwide. This basin has been affected by climate change and human activities for a long time, resulting in the destruction of the basin’s ecological environment, and especially its vegetation. However, there have been few studies that have focused on watershed vegetation and runoff changes. Therefore, we combined Generalized Information System and remote sensing technology, used SWAT and InVEST models based on the Google Earth Engine platform, and used the vegetation normalization index method to calculate the spatial distribution of vegetation and water production from 2000 to 2020 in Ebinur Lake. Sen’s trend analysis and the M–K test were used to calculate vegetation and runoff trends. The relationship between vegetation and runoff variation was studied using bivariate spatial autocorrelation based on sub-basins and plant types. The results showed that the Z parameter in the InVEST model spanned from 1–2. The spatial distribution of the water yield in a watershed is similar to the elevation of the watershed, showing a trend of higher altitude leading to a higher water yield. Its water yield capacity tends to saturate at elevations greater than 3500 m. The local spatial distribution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) values and water yield clustering in the watershed were consistent and reproducible. Interannual runoff based on sub-basins correlated positively with the overall NDVI, whereas interannual runoff based on plant type correlated negatively with the overall NDVI.

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Impacts of climate change on global total and urban runoff

Cited by 11 publications

References 50 publications

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Representing dynamic urban land change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Vegetation Response to Runoff in the Ebinur Lake Basin

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