Impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrological components and crop water use in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Modi, Parthkumar; Fuka, Daniel R.; Easton, Zachary M.

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100830

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…The amount and intensity of precipitation have also increased in the eastern U.S., with relatively larger increases in the heavy rainfalls defined as events in the top 10 percentile (Groisman et al, 2004; Karl et al, 2009; Karl & Knight, 1998; Melillo et al, 2014). These trends are expected to continue in the future, with the Chesapeake Bay region generally projected to experience further increases in air temperature and precipitation amount and intensity over the next century (Modi et al, 2021; Najjar et al, 2010; Seong & Sridhar, 2017; Wolfe et al, 2008). The largest increases in precipitation are predicted to occur in winter and spring, potentially leading to higher streamflow in those months, whereas greater evapotranspiration and more frequent drought spells may ultimately result in decreased streamflow in summer and fall (Hayhoe et al, 2007; Winter et al, 2020; St. Laurent et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Bhatt

Linker

Shenk

et al. 2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

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The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60‐year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Bhatt

Linker

Shenk

et al. 2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…Furthermore, the expected deviation from the current climate condition, characterized by a massive prevalence of heavy rains as well as the hike in temperatures brought by climate change, is undoubtedly an element that will contribute greatly to the intensification of flooding in the area. Apart from being high in volume and area, flood events, which are exacerbated by climate change and changes in moisture content and hydrological mechanisms, fail to yield the desired flood mitigation results (Modi et al, 2021). Besides that, the rise of the river flow may cause flood frequency (Tahmasebi Nasab et al, 2022;Yamamoto et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote Sensing and Gis-Driven Model for Flood Susceptibility Assessment in the Upper Solo River Watershed

JUMADI,

SARI,

UMROTUN

et al. 2024

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This study aims to develop an expedited flood susceptibility model with remote sensing data that can be effectively utilized for a large catchment area. We apply the model to the Upper Solo River Watershed in Indonesia. The model incorporates the hydrological attributes of the watershed obtained from remote sensing data, including elevation, slope, flow accumulation, proximity to rivers, rainfall, drainage density, topographic wetness index, land use land cover, normalized difference vegetation index, soil moisture, and land surface curvature. The flood susceptibility criteria are generated using remote sensing datasets such as The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Sentinel 2 Multispectral Instrument, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) v6, and NASA-USDA Enhanced SMAP Global Soil Moisture Data. Through utilizing remote sensing data and GIS analytic tools, this study has discovered that it is possible to create a flood susceptibility model for large catchment regions cost-efficiently. Our study indicates that areas in the surrounding of Surakarta City, the most populated city in this watershed, are the most susceptible. Therefore, the government and community should increase their capacity to cope with this potential disaster.

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“…Nevertheless, there is conflict information concerning non-maize crop output and the influence of rainfall on family net income [30]. Modi et al (2021) have explained that the impact of climate change on crop production until the year 2090 is reverse effects, as the study showed that the increase in temperature, as a consequence of global warming, makes the production of the corn crop decreased significantly (p < 0.05) as bioavailability of water in for plants is decreased [31]. According to a recent NASA research, climate change might influence maize (corn) and wheat productivity as early as 2030 if the recent scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions continued.…”

Section: Relationship Of Crop Production With Changes In Temperature ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Crops Productivity Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series

Jabal¹,

Khayyun

Alwan

2022

Civ Eng J

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Climate change is the single biggest threat facing the global food system. Irrefutable impacts of climate change on the food systems are recently acknowledged. Therefore, extensive scientific efforts around the globe are dedicated to investigating and evaluating the short and long-term effects of climate change on the development of global food systems. In this study, an integrated approach of two methodologies, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Data and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), was employed to extrapolate the long-term changes in agronomic areas from 2000 to 2020 in the Dukan Dam Watershed (DDW), Northern Iraq. The link between agricultural areas and the primary production of essential crops (Wheat, Barley, Rice, Maize, and Sunflower) is proposed to be altered due to the impact of climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Iraq is one of the semi-arid regions in the world that has recently been characterized by water scarcity and limited agronomic areas. Three independent variables (rainfall, temperature, and agriculture area) were used in the multiple regression analysis to understand the impact of the main drivers affecting the production of crops in DDW. Obtained results showed an increasing trend in crop production as a result of the frequent use of groundwater and surface water sources along with the implementation of greenhouse cultivation. Correlation analysis shows that the crop production was significantly related to the annual precipitation with a 59–63% in winter crops like wheat and barley, but was less sensitive to the temperature with a 20–40% in summer crops like rice, maize, and sunflower. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-04 Full Text: PDF

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Impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrological components and crop water use in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Cited by 11 publications

References 69 publications

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Remote Sensing and Gis-Driven Model for Flood Susceptibility Assessment in the Upper Solo River Watershed

Impact of Climate Change on Crops Productivity Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series

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