Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton, Michele; Archer, Emma; Jewitt, Graham

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2013.09.014

Cited by 250 publications

(182 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…The region faces challenges to the realisation of these goals. These challenges include declining water resources and an energy deficit [14]; this is set against increasing demand for both water and energy driven by an increasing population. The challenges require that a nexus approach be adopted with regards to water and energy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Africa’s Water–Energy Nexus: Towards Regional Integration and Development

Mabhaudhi

Mpandeli

Madhlopa

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:The Southern African Development Community's (SADC) water and energy sectors are under increasing pressure due to population growth and agricultural and industrial development. Climate change is also negatively impacting on the region's water and energy resources. As the majority of SADC's population lives in poverty, regional development and integration are underpinned by water and energy security as the watercourses in the region are transboundary in nature. This paper reviews the region's water and energy resources and recommends policies based on the water-energy nexus approach. This is achieved by reviewing literature on water and energy resources as well as policy issues. Water resources governance provides a strong case to create a water-energy nexus platform to support regional planning and integration as SADC countries share similar climatic and hydrological conditions. However, there has been a gap between water and energy sector planning in terms of policy alignment and technical convergence. These challenges hinder national policies on delivering economic and social development goals, as well as constraining the regional goal of greater integration. Regional objectives on sustainable energy and access to clean water for all can only be achieved through the recognition of the water-energy nexus, championed in an integrated and sustainable manner. A coordinated regional water-energy nexus approach stimulates economic growth, alleviates poverty and reduces high unemployment rates. The shared nature of water and energy resources requires far more transboundary water-energy nexus studies to be done in the context of regional integration and policy formulation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Africa’s Water–Energy Nexus: Towards Regional Integration and Development

Mabhaudhi

Mpandeli

Madhlopa

et al. 2016

Water

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“…Variations in precipitation have direct effects on runoff, groundwater storage, frequency and intensity of floods, soil moisture, water supplies for irrigation, and hydroelectric power generation (Li et al 2009;Tshimanga and Hughes 2012). Elevated temperature enhances evapotranspiration resulting in lowered soil moisture, increased crop water requirement, and declined stream flow (Enyew et al 2014;Kusangaya et al 2014). Beyene et al (2010) concluded that stream flows from the Nile river basin will increase in 2020 -2039 and decline in both 2040 -2069 and 2070 -2100 time windows based upon Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) AR4.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Ayele¹,

Li²,

Tung³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Climate change and variability have significant influences on hydrological cycles and the availability of water in the Horn of Africa. Projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs) in association with high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios were adopted in this study from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 2020 -2039 to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Gilgel Abbay and Gumara watershed hydrology, the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were screened in accordance with baseline climate statistics of study areas. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive the General Water Loading Function (GWLF) hydrological model for simulating runoffs. Projected changes in temperature differences and precipitation ratios relative to the baseline were analyzed to explain the variations in evapotranspiration and the influences on runoff. Despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among GCMs, increasing runoff in both wet and dry seasons was observed for both watersheds, attributable mainly to the increase in precipitation projected by most GCMs. In contrast to the great increases in runoff, variations in evapotranspiration are less significant. The projected runoff in both watersheds implies increased potential for promoting agricultural irrigation in the dry season. Furthermore, it would allow greater inflow to Lake Tana, the largest contributor to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Therefore, concerned local, state, and federal government organizations shall be prepared to harness opportunities from the projected increase in runoff.

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“…James, Washington, & Rowell, 2014). This is due to a combination of factors, such as poor observational records, high levels of interannual and decadal climate variability that are poorly simulated, and a low level of investment in climate science (Kusangaya, Warburton, Archer van Garderen, & Jewitt, 2014;Shongwe, van Oldenborgh, van den Hurk, de Boer, Coelho, & van Aalst, 2009;Washington, James, Pearce, Pokam, & Moufouma-Okia, 2013). There is a pressing need for climate information to inform national-level planning, and policy and decision making across a range of sectors, environments, and socio-political settings (Jones, Roux, Scott, & Tanner, 2014;Vaughan & Dessai, 2014), to support future climate-resilient development and to help safeguard promising trends of economic development across the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

et al. 2015

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The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5-10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1-5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2-3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1 -5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6 -20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short-to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors. Policy relevanceFor climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales -sub-annual to short term (1-5 years) to medium term (6 -20 years) -is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

Cited by 250 publications

References 66 publications

Southern Africa’s Water–Energy Nexus: Towards Regional Integration and Development

Southern Africa’s Water–Energy Nexus: Towards Regional Integration and Development

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

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