Impacts of climate change and land‐use on the potential distribution of an invasive weed: a case study of Lantana camara in Australia

Abstract

Taylor S, Kumar L & Reid N (2012). Impacts of climate change and land‐use on the potential distribution of an invasive weed: a case study of Lantana camara in Australia. Weed Research.52, 391–401. Summary Lantana camara (lantana) is an extremely invasive species in many countries, including Australia. Biosecurity agencies will benefit from prior knowledge of the potential distribution of L. camara, under current and future climate scenarios. A process‐based niche model for this species was developed using the CLIMEX modelling package. The potential distribution generated from this model was refined by incorporating existing land‐use data in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The potential distribution of L. camara under current climate indicated that L. camara occupies almost the full extent of climatically suitable habitat available to it in Australia. Under future climate scenarios, L. camara range expands into new areas in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, while the northern parts of the continent become climatically unsuitable. This trend continued with the inclusion of land‐use data, although with a more restricted distri‐bution, as locations with suitable climate but unsuitable land‐use were excluded. Weed control authorities in the new areas at risk of invasion under climate change need to be alerted to this emerging threat, so that effective response measures can be taken.

Predicting the potential distribution of Lantana camara L. under RCP scenarios using ISI-MIP models

“…These findings highlight the complex effects of climate change on the potential geographical distribution of L. camara rather than simply increasing invasion risk. Predictions of further inland range expansion of this species under future climate conditions are consistent with previous findings (Taylor et al 2012b;Taylor and Kumar 2013). These shifts in the projected potential range were relatively restricted considering the physiological tolerance limits to temperature and precipitation of this species.…”

“…These shifts in the projected potential range were relatively restricted considering the physiological tolerance limits to temperature and precipitation of this species. Therefore, the distribution of L. camara in the coming decades may not occur uniformly but rather more patchily reflecting the availability of favorable microhabitats (Taylor et al 2012b). In a recent pot experiment, Zhang et al (2014) reported that elevated temperatures led to significant increases in growth of L. camara along with physiological and allelopathic effects.…”

“…For instance, a case study of L. camara in Australia by Taylor et al (2012b) revealed that land-use plays an important role in determining habitat availability and hence colonization potential. When incorporating land-use data into the modelling process, more constrained distribution projections with both the reference climate and climate change scenarios were derived, which provided land managers a more accurate assessment of where management efforts would need to be targeted (Taylor et al 2012b). These limiting factors, not included in our analysis, map help local decision-makers identify areas vulnerable to potential invasion by L. camara.…”

“…This index was used because numerous alien species (e.g. L. camara) have been reported to be associated with human modified landscapes, international trade and transportation (Leprieur et al 2008;Taylor et al 2012b). Data values range from 0 to 64, corresponding to no or maximum human influence on a habitat.…”

Impacts of climate change on invasive Lantana camara L. distribution in South Africa

“…They were then used to model potential lantana distribution in South Africa under the reference climate (averaging period 1950-2000) as well as climate change scenarios. For a more detailed explanation of the parameter-fitting procedure, refer to Taylor et al (2012aTaylor et al ( , 2012b and Taylor and Kumar (2012).…”