Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics

Whitehead, Paul; Barbour, Emily; Bishop, Kevin; Sarkar, Sananda; Rodda, Harvey J. E.; Caesar, John; Butterfield, D.; Jin, Li; Sinha, Rajiv; Nicholls, Robert J.; Salehin, Mashfiqus

doi:10.1039/c4em00619d

Cited by 122 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, using the INCA-N, an inland catchment modelling system and considering the projected climatic and socioeconomic scenarios, Whitehead et al (2015) showed that there would be a significant increase in future monsoon intensities due to the impact of climate change. That would make future flooding scenarios much worse than those experienced presently.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

Jisan

Bao

Pietrafesa

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5;. Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR.Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing.The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km 2 , would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case.Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario.Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km 2 , whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km 2 These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

Jisan

Bao

Pietrafesa

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Inputs of freshwater at river mouths in the GBM delta area were provided using outputs from a hydrological model of the river basins 33,34 : these were created using the same HadRM3P Q0, Q8 and Q16 climate forcing data as the Bay of Bengal model. The GBM rivers provide 40% of the modelled freshwater flow into the entire domain and dominate in the delta area.…”

Section: Riversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change

Kay

Caesar

Wolf

et al. 2015

Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in both West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5 th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21 st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.

show abstract

“…The fits to the Ganges flow data are of a similar order of magnitude (Whitehead et al 2015a). In addition to calibrating the flow model, it is necessary to calibrate the water quality model.…”

Section: Climate Drivers For the Gbm Riversmentioning

confidence: 59%

Biophysical Modelling of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Catchment

Whitehead

2018

Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics

Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest.

Cited by 122 publications

References 30 publications

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change

Biophysical Modelling of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Catchment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About