Abstract. A comprehensive study of the strongly wind driven midlatitude buoyant plume from the Columbia River, located on the U.S. west coast, demonstrates that the plume has two basic structures during the fall/winter season, namely, a thin (---5-15 m), strongly stratified plume tending west to northwestward during periods of southward or light northward wind stress and a thicker (---10-40 m), weakly stratified plume tending northward and hugging the coast during periods of stronger northward stress. The plume and its velocity field respond nearly instantaneously to changes in wind speed or direction, and the wind fluctuations have timescales of 2-10 days. Frictional wind-driven currents cause the primarily unidirectional flow down the plume axis to veer to the right or left of the axis for northward or southward winds, respectively. Farther downstream, currents turn to parallel rather than cross salinity contours, consistent with a geostrophic balance. In particular, during periods when the plume is separated from the coast, currents tend to flow around the mound of fresher water. At distances exceeding about 20 km from the river mouth, the along-shelf depth-averaged flow over the inner to midshelf is linear, and depth-averaged acceleration is governed to lowest order by the difference between surface and bottom stress alone. In this region, along-shelf geostrophic buoyancy-driven currents at ---5 m (calculated from surface density) and along-shelf geostrophic wind-driven currents (computed from a depth-averaged linear model) are comparable in magnitude (---10-25 cm s-•).

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A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane forecast guidance for prognostic modeling; and 3) assimilating the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) real-time buoy data into the model’s initial wind field. The method is validated using all 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. The results show that 6- and 12-h forecast winds using the asymmetric hurricane wind model are statistically more accurate than using a symmetric wind model. Detailed case studies were conducted for four historical hurricanes, namely, Floyd (1999), Gordon (2000), Lily (2002), and Isabel (2003). Although the asymmetric model performed generally better than the symmetric model, the improvement in hurricane wind forecasts produced by the asymmetric model varied significantly for different storms. In some cases, optimizing the symmetric model using observations available at initial time and forecast mean radius of maximum wind can produce comparable wind accuracy measured in terms of rms error of wind speed. However, in order to describe the asymmetric structure of hurricane winds, an asymmetric model is needed.

The spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks and its possible association with the annual hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. East Coast are studied using principal component analysis (PCA) of hurricane track density function (HTDF). The results show that, in addition to the well-documented effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vertical wind shear (VWS), North Atlantic HTDF is strongly modulated by the dipole mode (DM) of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Specifically, it was found that Atlantic SST DM is the only index that is associated with all top three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Atlantic HTDF. ENSO and tropical Atlantic VWS are significantly correlated with the first and the third EOF of the HTDF over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second EOF of North Atlantic HTDF, which represents the “zonal gradient” of North Atlantic hurricane track density, showed no significant correlation with ENSO or with tropical Atlantic VWS. Instead, it is associated with the Atlantic SST DM, and extratropical processes including NAO and AO. Since for a given hurricane season, the preferred hurricane track pattern, together with the overall basinwide hurricane activity, collectively determines the hurricane landfall frequency, the results provide a foundation for the construction of a statistical model that projects the annual number of hurricanes striking the eastern seaboard of the United States.