Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Abstract

Abstract. A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 ∘C warming to 2.0 ∘C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 ∘C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.

Food security and sustainable crops production with considering climate change in China

“…Li et al [1] found that the climate change has a universally negative effect on Chinese agriculture and implies that a higher flexibility of maize producing timing and a better regional adaptation to climate change in Southwest region could offset or even to outweigh the potential reduction of maize production in Northeast region. Chen et al [2] revealed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in northern China, rice in South China and maize across the major cultivation areas due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. Tao and Zhang [3] concluded that a moderate increase in mean temperature and the increase in solar radiation would promote the yield increase by enhancing crop canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulation and yield.…”

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

“…The results of the GCM ensembles are averaged to obtain the final simulation results. The CO 2 fertilization effect will influence the yield profoundly; to some extent, the higher the CO 2 concentration, the higher the yield will be [26]. In order to assess the CO 2 fertilization effect, the simulation is also completed by using the present and future potential concentrations of CO 2 .…”

“…In addition, the increases of 1.5 and 2.0 • C above preindustrial levels reflect a more moderate climate scenario, and only a few studies have used the new scenario to assess the potential climate change impacts on crops globally. Chen et al evaluates the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops in China at global warming levels of both 1.5 and 2.0 • C [26]. Jacob et al explores the climate impacts for the coming decades in Europe under a global warming level of 1.5 • C [27].…”

VIL1, a Polycomb-associated protein, modulates high ambient temperature response via H3K27me3 and H2A.Z inArabidopsis thaliana

“…Most of this warming has occurred in the past three decades at the rate of 0.15-0.20 °C per decade. Increase in global temperature caused by climate change will have a devastating effect on biodiversity, crop yield and ultimately on human health [2][3][4][5][6] . Adapting to the everchanging environment is key to the successful life of an organism and ultimately of a species.…”