Impact of Water Resources Development on Water Availability for Hydropower Production and Irrigated Agriculture of the Eastern Nile Basin

Digna, Reem Fikri Mohamed Osman; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter van der; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Krogt, Wil van der; Corzo, Gerald

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000912

Cited by 26 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Non-cooperative management means optimizing the system of each country to maximize its benefits. The first scenario (S1) is the status quo scenario, of which results have been taken from Digna et al [46], who used the RIBASIM river basin simulation model to simulate the existing system and management conditions of the Eastern Nile Basin. The simulated network in the (S1) represent the existing system in 2015 before the start of operating Settit Dam on Tekeze-Atbara River.…”

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data used in the simulation model were obtained from Digna et al [46]. The key input data were the physical characteristics of dams, stream flows, evaporation from reservoirs, and irrigation water demands.…”

Section: Symbol Unit Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each of water management scenarios was investigated under three water availability conditions, namely dry, normal and wet hydrological conditions (seven scenarios in total: three hydrologic conditions scenarios × two management scenarios and one status quo). The RIBASIM model developed by Digna et al [46] is not an economic model, and therefore, partial comparison is conducted using the common parameters, such as generated energy, irrigation supply/demand ratios and evaporation losses.…”

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Digna

Castro-Gama

Zaag

et al. 2018

Water

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The Eastern Nile Basin is facing a number of transboundary issues, including water resources development, and the associated impacts. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems of potential conflicts between riparian countries. The Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries, with limited or no contribution to the runoff itself. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal scenarios for water resources management in the Eastern Nile with regard to hydropower generation and irrigation development. A hydro-economic optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm has been used to determine the maximum benefits for two scenarios: (i) non-cooperative management of hydraulic infrastructure by the riparian countries (status quo), and (ii) cooperative water resources management among the riparian countries. The hydro-economic model is developed using a Genetic Algorithm and deterministic optimization approach covering all hydraulic infrastructures in the Eastern Nile, existing and planned, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The results show that cooperative management yields an increase in hydro-energy returns for all countries compared to the status quo, with a very high increase in Ethiopian’s returns, as expected. Non-cooperative system management would negatively impact the hydro-energy of Egypt compared to the cooperative management (reduced by 11%), without a significant increase of hydro-energy for Ethiopia. For Sudan, the results show that hydropower generation benefits from the presence of GERD, in both management scenarios. Non-cooperative management of the system, along with the internal trade-off between irrigation and hydropower facilities, would negatively impact irrigation supply in Sudan. The findings support the argument of positive impact of GERD development on the three Eastern Nile riparian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, provided that the three countries agree to manage the system cooperatively.

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Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Symbol Unit Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Digna

Castro-Gama

Zaag

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Following rapidly increasing consumptive uses of the Nile River over the last century and projections of demands expected to significantly exceed the average annual supplies (Nile Basin Initiative [NBI], ), the countries have acknowledged the need for joint planning and management. Numerous studies have demonstrated how the river could be jointly developed (Arjoon et al, ; Blackmore & Whittington, ; Block et al, ; Digna et al, ; Goor et al, ; Guariso & Whittington, ; Jeuland & Whittington, ; van der Krogt & Ogink, ; Wheeler & Setzer, ); however, less attention has been given to specific reservoir operations and the process of reaching an agreement for coordination between countries. New infrastructure that could change the flows of the river should be managed with existing infrastructure to improve the reliability of water to all parties while protecting the riverine environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, coordinated management of water-related infrastructure across the basin's international borders to secure this need has rarely existed, aside from brief colonial efforts to assure reliable flows for agricultural productivity of the Nile delta (Hurst et al, 1947;Tvedt, 2004Tvedt, ). 2008Digna et al, 2018;Goor et al, 2010;Guariso & Whittington, 1987;Jeuland & Whittington, 2013;van der Krogt & Ogink, 2013;Wheeler & Setzer, 2012); however, less attention has been given to specific reservoir operations and the process of reaching an agreement for coordination between countries. New infrastructure that could change the flows of the river should be managed with existing infrastructure to improve the reliability of water to all parties while protecting the riverine environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin

Wheeler

Hall

Abdo

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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A water resource modeling process is demonstrated to support multistakeholder negotiations over transboundary management of the Nile River. This process addresses the challenge of identifying management options of new hydraulic infrastructure that potentially affects downstream coriparian nations and how the management of existing infrastructure can be adapted. The method includes an exploration of potential management decisions using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, intertwined with an iterative process of formulating cooperative strategies to overcome technical and political barriers faced in a transboundary negotiation. The case study is the addition of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and considers how its operation may be coordinated with adaptations to the operations of Egypt's High Aswan Dam. The results demonstrate that a lack of coordination is likely to be harmful to downstream riparians and suggest that adaptations to infrastructure in Sudan and Egypt can reduce risks to water supplies and energy generation. Although risks can be substantially reduced by agreed releases from the GERD and basic adaptations to the High Aswan Dam, these measures are still insufficient to assure that no additional risk is assumed by Egypt. The method then demonstrates how improvements to water security for both downstream riparians can be achieved through dynamic adaptation of the operation of the GERD during drought conditions. Finally, the paper demonstrates how the robustness of potential management arrangements can be evaluated considering potential effects of climate change, including increased interannual variability and highly uncertain changes such as increases in the future persistence of droughts.

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Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods

Basheer

2021

River Research & Apps

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The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has triggered much debate between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam's effects.Once completed, the GERD will be Africa's largest hydropower plant. This study analyzes the implications of cooperative long-term operation of the GERD for Nile riverine flooding downstream of the dam. A daily river system model of the Eastern Nile is developed and used to examine how cooperative long-term operation of the GERD would affect the occurrence of three flood alarm levels (alert, critical, and flooding) in Sudan downstream of the dam. A reconnaissance-level flood inundation model is developed for the Nile within Khartoum State (Sudan's capital) to assess the GERD's impacts on the flood extent in the state based on simulated flows from the river system model. Assuming the GERD is operated to achieve a 90% power reliability and active upstream-downstream data sharing between Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam's daily outflows, results show that the GERD would reduce the occurrence of the three alarm levels. Based on 34 simulated river flow sequences, the proportion of years with at least one flooding alarm day at Khartoum Gage declined from 37% without the GERD to 11% with the GERD. Seasonal coordination and planning between Ethiopia and Sudan are necessary to mitigate the remaining riverine flood hazard.Although cooperative long-term operation of the GERD could play a positive role in reducing the riverine flood hazard in Sudan, the associated river flow alterations would adversely impact recession agriculture and the environment.

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Impact of Water Resources Development on Water Availability for Hydropower Production and Irrigated Agriculture of the Eastern Nile Basin

Cited by 26 publications

References 24 publications

Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin

Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods

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