Impact of Urban Growth and Changes in Land Use on River Flood Hazard in Villahermosa, Tabasco (Mexico)

Abstract

The city of Villahermosa, a logistical center in the State of Tabasco’s economy, is affected by recurrent river floods. In this study, we analyzed the impact of two factors that are the most probable causes of this increase in flood hazard: changes in land use in the hydrological catchments upstream of the city, and the uncontrolled urbanization of the floodplains adjacent to the main river channels. Flood discharges for different return periods were evaluated, considering land uses of the catchments, both as they were in 1992 and as they are today. These flood discharges were then used in a 2D shallow water model to estimate the increase of water depths in the city from 1992 to the present day. To evaluate the influence of urban expansion on inundation levels, three future urbanization scenarios were proposed on the basis of the urban growth rate forecast for 2050. Results confirm that the change in land use in the hydrological catchments is the main factor that explains the increase in inundation events observed over recent years. This study also provides useful insights for future city planning that might help to minimize the flood impact on Villahermosa.

Linking Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Governance in Mexico for Flood Mitigation: A Participatory Approach Model

“…Results show that low levels of impact are unlikely to occur, while high flow rates have a high probability of occurrence. Finally, Areu-Rangel et al [13] assessed the impact of change in land use and urban growth on the flood hazard in Villahermosa, Tabasco. They calculated flood discharges for different return periods considering land uses of the catchments as they were in 1992 and as they are today, and estimate, by means of a 2D shallow water model, the increase of water depths in the city from 1992 to the present.…”

“…Although levees have been constructed to protect the city, they are not sufficient. Areu-Rangel et al [13] recently proposed three urban expansion scenarios for 2050 in Villahermosa, on the basis of the estimations of the city's growth rate and numerically forecasted inundation levels. Their results show that a future urban expansion would cause inundation depths to rise up to 0.7 m in areas that are already affected by floods every year.…”

Comparative Hydrodynamic Analysis by Using Two−Dimensional Models and Application to a New Bridge

“…Other publications investigate specific topics, such as the analysis of flooding scenarios in general [21], flood forecasting using coupled hydrological and hydraulic Models [22], extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches [23], sensitivity of flood loss estimates for building representation and flow depth attribution methods in micro−scale flood modeling [24], real-time prediction of flood inundation [25], numerical distributed modeling of sedimentary and erosion processes [26], soil erosion predictions [27], bedload transport for mixed flows [28], sediment transport during the breakage of dams [29], drying and transport processes in distributed hydrological modeling [30], wood transport and sediment in rivers, flash floods, etc. [31][32][33][34][35][36], hydrodynamic movement in water bodies due to wind drag action [37], inundation modeling in coastal urban areas [38], local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions [39,40], conservation of the cultural heritage due to flood risk [41], historical reconstruction [25], hazard mapping [42], research on the rivers confluence in order to analyze the geomorphic consequences of the backwater effect [43], assessment of the physical habitat suitability for fish [44], and many other works with a wide variety of themes.…”

Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico

“…The process of urbanization of hydrological basins and the transformation of natural soils by less permeable coverings such as agricultural and urban soils, has modified the natural hydrological cycle of the basins and, consequently, loss of capacity to regulate the runoff generated by even low intensity and short duration rains [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. These conditions increase the hydrological hazard due to overflowing of rivers because of the loss of hydraulic capacity of the channels to drive large volumes of runoff [17][18][19].…”