Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: A spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England

Wang, Christopher; Quddus, Mohammed; Ison, Stephen

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.04.002

Cited by 213 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The EB method however is allegedly using the data twice and inadequate to account for all uncertainties associated with road accidents and their contributing factors (Huang et al, 2009). Recently more advanced models have been developed such as full Bayesian spatial models (Miaou et al, 2003;Aguero-Valverde and Jovanis, 2006;Quddus, 2008b;Wang et al, 2009). The full Bayesian method has also been used in site ranking (e.g.…”

Section: Accident Frequency Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting accident frequency at their severity levels and its application in site ranking using a two-stage mixed multivariate model

Wang

Quddus

Ison

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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119

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Citation: WANG, C., QUDDUS, M.A. and ISON, S.G., Predicting accident frequency at their severity levels and its application in site ranking using a two-stage mixed multivariate model. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43(6), pp.1979-1990 Metadata AbstractAccident prediction models (APMs) have been extensively used in site ranking with the objective of identifying accident hotspots. Previously this has been achieved by using a univariate count data or a multivariate count data model (e.g. multivariate Poissonlognormal) for modelling the number of accidents at different severity levels simultaneously. This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate accident frequency at different severity levels, namely the two-stage mixed multivariate model which combines both accident frequency and severity models. The accident, traffic and road characteristics data from the M25 motorway and surrounding major roads in England have been collected to demonstrate the use of the two-stage model. A Bayesian spatial model and a mixed logit model have been employed at each stage for accident frequency and severity analysis respectively, and the results combined to produce estimation of the number of accidents at different severity levels. Based on the results from the two-stage model, the accident hotspots on the M25 and surround have been identified. The ranking result using the twostage model has also been compared with other ranking methods, such as the naïve ranking method, multivariate Poisson-lognormal and fixed proportion method. Compared to the traditional frequency based analysis, the two-stage model has the advantage in that it utilises more detailed individual accident level data and is able to predict low frequency accidents (such as fatal accidents). Therefore, the two-stage mixed multivariate model is a promising tool in predicting accident frequency according to their severity levels and site ranking.

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Section: Accident Frequency Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting accident frequency at their severity levels and its application in site ranking using a two-stage mixed multivariate model

Wang

Quddus

Ison

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

Self Cite

119

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“…Cycling facilities have been related to higher cycling crash occurrence and these findings have been interpreted as on-road cycling being safer, with specific problems related to bidirectional facilities and discontinuous ones (e.g., 26,27,28). Traffic congestion has been analyzed with respect to cycling crash occurrence via surrogate measures such as measuring rates in peak or off-peak hours, considering speed limits, and observing traffic composition, with identifiable problems related both to higher traffic volumes in the peak hours and higher speeds in the off-peak hours (e.g., 29,30,31,32).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infrastructure and spatial effects on the frequency of cyclist-motorist collisions in the Copenhagen Region

Prato

Kaplan

Rasmussen

et al. 2016

Journal of Transportation Safety & Security

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Promoting cycling aims at reducing congestion and pollution and encouraging healthy and sustainable lifestyles, but generally clashes with the crash risk perception while riding a bicycle that is still the most significant disincentive to cycling. The current study analyzed the factors contributing to increase crash risk while riding a bicycle by focusing on the variation of 5349 cyclist-motorist collisions within 269 traffic zones in the Copenhagen Region. The model controlled for traffic exposure for both bicycles and motorized transport modes, evaluated the effects of infrastructure and socio-economic characteristics of the zones, and accounted for heterogeneity and spatial correlation across the zones. A Poisson-lognormal model with second-order CAR priors confirmed the existence of the safety in numbers phenomenon, contradicted previous literature about bicycle facilities not being helpful in reducing crash risk, highlighted the need for Copenhagen-style bicycle paths especially in suburban areas, and emphasized how heterogeneity and spatial correlation play a significant role in explaining the probability of cyclist-motorist crash occurrence.

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“…When reaching those limits, traffic flow instability conditions are susceptible to occur, such as lower driving speed and rather limited freedom of manoeuvring, which leads to a lower risk of accidents. Wang et al (2009) study the impact of traffic congestion on the frequency of road accidents and they have reached to the same conclusion.…”

Section: Validation Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 50%

Investigating the Role of Traffic Volumes on the Occurrence of the Accidents on the National Roads: a Case Study in Romania

Cadar¹,

Boitor²,

Dumitrescu³

2017

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ABSTRACT:Every road accident is important. Investigating the road accidents and their causes is the main action to be conducted in the prevention and the prediction stages. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the state-of-the-art regarding road accidents research in Romania, one of the top country in the EU Road Death Statistics. It came out that there is an inconsistent research conducted in the country, with very few studies which were spread across different fields, along with a major lack in accident prediction methods. The study provides a starting point for the accident prediction by validating an international model which could be employed in Romania. The specific goal of the paper is to investigate the impact of the traffic volumes on the accidents occurrence. The traffic data were provided by the National Road Infrastructure Management Company (CNAIR). The road accident data were provided by the Traffic Department of the General Inspectorate of Romanian Police (GIRPTD) and it consisted in the information collected in the field during 2015 on the main national roads in Romania. The database was simplified in accordance to the aim of the paper to include only the relevant details regarding the accident, the vehicles, and the participants. The preliminary analyses were performed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The outcome was employed further in the research to highlight the correlation between accidents and the traffic volumes, by means of power regression. The results have proved the major impact of traffic volumes in accident occurrence up to a certain level of congestion. The importance of the study reaches beyond the stated goals and it shows the necessity of a research strategy at the national level regarding the road safety. In order to overcome the lack of scientific practice in the field, it is mandatory to improve the data, to adopt and develop methods and knowledge according to the local conditions for a future with safer roads in Romania.

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Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: A spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England

Cited by 213 publications

References 34 publications

Predicting accident frequency at their severity levels and its application in site ranking using a two-stage mixed multivariate model

Predicting accident frequency at their severity levels and its application in site ranking using a two-stage mixed multivariate model

Infrastructure and spatial effects on the frequency of cyclist-motorist collisions in the Copenhagen Region

Investigating the Role of Traffic Volumes on the Occurrence of the Accidents on the National Roads: a Case Study in Romania

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