Impact of Temperature Waves on the Health of Residents in Cities of the Northwestern Region of Russia

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

“…First, it was shown that heat (cold) waves were mainly defined as periods with abnormally high (low) temperatures compared to current values, often combined with high humidity (strong wind), which have an adverse effect on human body, expressed in a statistically significant increase in mortality or morbidity [69,71,72,[93][94][95][96][97][98][99][100][101][107][108][109][110][111]. Based on long-term research, it was determined that heat (cold) waves incorporate periods with an excess of the 97(3) % percentile of the distribution of mean daily temperature in the summer (winter) months [145,177].…”

“…When analyzing temperature waves, in addition to their duration, other indicators were described: the wave intensity, i.e. the sum of degrees above (below) the base temperature [72]; the "wave fraction" defined as the ratio of the number of days in the wave to the total number of days with temperatures above (below) the temperature threshold, for heat and cold waves, respectively [94,99]; the time shift between the beginning of the wave and the impact on the human body as the lagged effect [55,70,97,98,100,101]. In addition, increased (decreased) temperature background in summer (winter) [69,71,72,107] and air pollution [73,108] were analyzed, which contribute to the exacerbation of diseases during heat and cold waves.…”

“…A significant inter-annual variability of air temperature during the cold period was shown in Russia over the past 50 years, with increase of mean winter temperature but simultaneous decrease in the frequency of extremely cold days [175]. At the beginning of the 21st century, significant increasing trends for mean winter temperatures were noted for Saint Petersburg and Murmansk (about 0.9°C/10 years), for Arkhangelsk (more than 1.5°C/10 years) [100]. At the same time, the frequency of frosty days, defined as days with an air temperature below 95% of the percentile of the distribution of the minimum daily temperature for the period from 1970 to 2015, increased in the south of Siberia [175].…”

“…In Saint Petersburg over the years from 1986 to 2015, the average annual temperature has increased by 1.7 °C, and the number of days with hot weather -by 30% [191]. The average duration of heat waves for the period 1999-2016 was 9 days [100]. In the hot summer of 2010, during an intermittent heat wave, all-cause mortality increased by 30.2% compared to the summer of 2009.…”

Scenario Assessments of Climatic Warming and Population Mortality in Russian Cities Located in the Sub-Arctic Regions in Xxi Century

“…Аналогичное изменение смертности по сценарию RCP 8.5 ожидается к концу века и в Северной Европе -0,6 % (95%-ный ДИ -2,3-1,6 %) [14]. Тем не менее во время волн жары в приарктических городах смертность населения, особенно пожилого, будет возрастать [8,17,18]. Математические методы оценки воздействия таких волн на показатели смертности населения описаны в статье Д.А.…”