Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

Wang, Jingyuan; Tang, Ke; Feng, Kai; Lin, Xiao; Liu, Weifeng; Chen, Kun; Wang, Fei

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043863

Cited by 126 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…18). This is despite theoretical demonstrations of the potential role of environment in driving future seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 (22,32) and the empirical evidence in structurally similar viruses outlined above. Efforts to incorporate climate into COVID-19 forecasting have focused on regression-type models of cases and fatalities (e.g., ref.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 93%

Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Smith

Flaxman

Gallinat

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

109

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As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 93%

Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Smith

Flaxman

Gallinat

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

109

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show abstract

“…However, given the large number of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections 18 , the variations in the lag between infection and symptom onset, and the inconsistent lag between testing and reporting, using daily new confirmed cases may not be optimal for examining meteorological effects 19 . As a result, a few studies have used the reproduction number to estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility 20 – 22 . One study reported high daily air temperature and high daily relative humidity (RH, the amount of water vapor in the air expressed as a percentage of the amount needed for saturation at a given temperature) to be associated with a reduced daily effective reproduction number ( R e , the mean number of new infections caused by a single infected person in a population in which some individuals may no longer be susceptible due to acquired immunity 23 ) for SARS-CoV-2 in both China and the U.S. 20 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Ma¹,

et al. 2021

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Improved understanding of the effects of meteorological conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent for COVID-19 disease, is needed. Here, we estimate the relationship between air temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 2669 U.S. counties with abundant reported cases from March 15 to December 31, 2020. Specifically, we quantify the associations of daily mean temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation with daily estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (Rt) and calculate the fraction of Rt attributable to these meteorological conditions. Lower air temperature (within the 20–40 °C range), lower specific humidity, and lower ultraviolet radiation were significantly associated with increased Rt. The fraction of Rt attributable to temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation were 3.73% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.66–3.76%), 9.35% (95% eCI: 9.27–9.39%), and 4.44% (95% eCI: 4.38–4.47%), respectively. In total, 17.5% of Rt was attributable to meteorological factors. The fractions attributable to meteorological factors generally were higher in northern counties than in southern counties. Our findings indicate that cold and dry weather and low levels of ultraviolet radiation are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, with humidity playing the largest role.

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“…These regions had similar weather conditions during this period. Studies by many authors (Scafetta 2020;Tzampoglou and Loukidis 2020;Spena et al 2020;Haque and Rahman 2020;Wang et al 2021;Tobías and Molina 2020) confirm the negative impact of high temperature and high humidity on the number of infections and pandemic deaths. They suggest that the pandemic is likely to evolve in line with the seasonal temperature cycle.…”

Section: Empirical Research and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Bieszk‐Stolorz

Dmytrów

2021

Risks

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The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

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Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

Cited by 126 publications

References 42 publications

Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

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