Impact of Regional Conflicts on Energy Security in Jordan

Abstract

This paper presents a study which analyzes the energy security in Jordan in light of several regional conflicts for the period . We apply an event study method to assess the direct and indirect effects of six regional conflicts on the energy sector in Jordan based on a proposed energy security framework developed from an infusion of frameworks found in literature. The conflicts include the 6 days war, Lebanese civil war, Iraq-Iran war, First Gulf war, Iraq Invasion, and Egyptian revolution. It was found that the energy sector in Jordan is too sensitive to the regional conflicts due to the lack of diversity of energy suppliers throughout the period of study. Other aspects taken into consideration included strategic storage adequacy, supply chain protection, economic integration, energy demands and prices. The study concludes with a proposed energy policy aiming the reduction of those effects.

Does natural gas fuel civil war? Rethinking energy security, international relations, and fossil-fuel conflict

“…Within the context of energy security, China has recently invested heavily in inland infrastructure to import Russian and Central Asian oil in order to bypass a possible future US blockade that could reduce Chinese oil imports by 90% [38: 184]. Geopolitics is a major externality, which influences energy security for every state [24,39,40]. Accessing energy resources has emerged as one of the main energy security challenges in the modern world [41][42][43].…”

“…Wilson asserts that a state is more likely to perceive "energy security as an existential threat to state interests insofar as energy resources critically impact its economic interests, regime survival and/or geopolitical security" [41: 114, 118]. From this perspective, intrastate conflicts influence a state's perception and anticipation about risks posed to its secure access to energy resources [24,27,28].…”

“…We argue that resource-rich interveners prioritize secure access to world markets since they need to export their products. Therefore, once an internal conflict breaks out in a state, especially if transit routes for natural gas pipelines are at stake, the instability caused by civil war might jeopardize this secure access, driving external states to intervene [24][25][26][27][28]. If the conflict-ridden state is also a resource-rich state, competition logic will further incentivize external states to intervene on the side of the rebel group.…”

Analysis of Cost-Optimal Renewable Energy Expansion for the Near-Term Jordanian Electricity System

“…As analysed within [4], a diversification of energy generation can have beneficial effects on the energy security of Jordan. According to this analysis, most relevant measures are continuing the decrease of imported energy through the utilisation of domestic energy resources such as oil shale and renewable sources (wind and PV).…”

“…Between 1960 to 2011, six regional conflicts had direct or indirect effects on the energy sector in Jordan, namely, the Six Day War, the Lebanese Civil War, the Iraq-Iran War, the First Gulf war, the invasion of Iraq and the Egyptian revolution [4]. More recently, Jordan has been facing additional challenges concerning the energy and water sectors, such as a low level of foreign investment and substantial population growth due mainly to migration from war stricken Syria [5,6].…”