Impact of human mobility and networking on spread of COVID-19 at the time of the 1st and 2nd epidemic waves in Japan: An effective distance approach

Nohara, Yasuhiro; Manabe, Toshie

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0272996

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The epidemic risk perception of the public helped them to take personal precautions in time and reduce unnecessary contacts, thus reducing the possibility of being infected [ 75 , 76 ]. In this paper, we made use of the Baidu search index term "COVID-19" as the proxy variable of residents’ protection awareness.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The health benefit of physical exercise on COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from mainland China

Lin

Hu²,

Guo³

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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Objectives Our study aims to investigate the health benefit of regular physical exercise participation on a series of COVID-19 outcomes including COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and cure rate. Methods Prefecture-level panel data related to physical exercise and the COVID-19 pandemic in China were collected from January 1 to March 17, 2020, (N = 21379). Multiple linear regression was conducted, and the ordinary least squares technique was used to estimate the coefficient. Results It was shown that regular sports participation significantly negatively affected COVID-19 morbidity (estimate = -1.1061, p<0.01) and mortality (estimate = -0.3836, p<0.01), and positively affected cure rate (estimate = 0.0448, p<0.01), implying that engaging in physical exercise regularly does have a significant positive effect on COVID-19 outcomes. Then, we explored the heterogeneity of the effect of physical exercise on areas with different risk levels and it was revealed that the effect of physical exercise was more pronounced in high-risk areas in terms of morbidity (estimate = -1.8776, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; estimate = -0.0037, p<0.01 in low-risk areas), mortality (estimate = -0.3982, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; estimate = -0.3492, p<0.01 in low-risk areas), and cure rate (estimate = 0.0807, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; 0.0193 = -0.0037, p<0.05 in low-risk areas). Conclusions Our results suggest that regularly engaging in physical exercise before the pandemic has positive health effects, especially in the case of a more severe epidemic. Therefore, we urge readers to actively engage in physical exercise so that we can reduce the risks in the event of a pandemic.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The health benefit of physical exercise on COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from mainland China

Lin

Hu²,

Guo³

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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“…The connection strength between world regions is only partly explained by their geographic proximity. Instead, due to historic geopolitical relations [14,15] pandemics spread rather along an effective distance that is derived from the world air transportation network (WAN) [16][17][18][19], or, if applied on a smaller scale, also from other means of transportation [16,20]. According to the effective distance, region B is closest to region A if the passenger flow from A to B is greater than to other destinations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An intriguing extension is the multipath effective distance, which enhances the prediction of disease arrival times by considering all paths taken by a random walker on the WAN [17]. The effective distance is regularly used to analyze the impact of mobility on the spread of diseases, as for example for MERS [21], Ebola [22], Zika [23] and most recently COVID-19 [20,[24][25][26]. While it enables a qualitative estimation of disease arrival times, its applicability is severely restricted when it comes to describing the importation of infected passengers from a specific source to a target.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network

Klamser,

Zachariae,

Maier

et al. 2024

PLoS Comput Biol

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Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from the outbreak country, establishing a linear relationship to the arrival time of the unmitigated spread of a disease. However, in the early stages of an outbreak, what concerns decision-makers in countries is understanding the relative risk of active cases arriving in their country—essentially, the likelihood that an active case boarding an airplane at the outbreak location will reach them. While there are data-fitted models available to estimate these risks, accurate mechanistic, parameter-free models are still lacking. Therefore, we introduce the ‘import risk’ model in this study, which defines import probabilities using the effective-distance framework. The model assumes that airline passengers are distributed along the shortest path tree that starts at the outbreak’s origin. In combination with a random walk, we account for all possible paths, thus inferring predominant connecting flights. Our model outperforms other mobility models, such as the radiation and gravity model with varying distance types, and it improves further if additional geographic information is included. The import risk model’s precision increases for countries with stronger connections within the WAN, and it reveals a geographic distance dependence that implies a pull- rather than a push-dynamic in the distribution process.

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Cross-regional analysis of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Southeast Asia during the transitional period of “living with COVID-19”

et al. 2023

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Impact of human mobility and networking on spread of COVID-19 at the time of the 1st and 2nd epidemic waves in Japan: An effective distance approach

Cited by 4 publications

References 13 publications

The health benefit of physical exercise on COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from mainland China

The health benefit of physical exercise on COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from mainland China

Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network

Cross-regional analysis of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Southeast Asia during the transitional period of “living with COVID-19”

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