Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.

doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0558-2

Cited by 42 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Gabaldón-Leal et al (2017) used an adapted version of the de Melo-Abreu model to calculate the projected chilling units for olive trees in the Andalusia region, also showing a generalised decrease in chilling accumulation projected for the rest of the century. Our work has findings similar to those of other studies performed in other parts of the globe; for example, Darbyshire et al (2013), who analysed the impact of the future warming on winter chilling in Australia, concluded that adaptation will be necessary in many locations, at least to some extent, within the next 50 years. Also, a negative impact of climate change on chilling accumulation was found, as expected, in another region with Mediterranean climate, California, in Luedeling et al (2009a), showing that adaptation would be difficult for some crops under some scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

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Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez

Pérez-López²,

Sánchez

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy requires accumulating chilling temperatures to finish this sort of dormancy. The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and each tree species and variety has specific chilling requirements for correct plant development. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this purpose, bias-adjusted results of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as inputs of four different models for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results for each model were individually compared for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation model used, with higher reductions for the 2071–2100 period and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas where the crop is currently grown, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The de Melo-Abreu et al (2004) model, consisting in a generalisation and simplification of the Utah model applied to olive trees, showed good performance. Model development was based on 15 olive cultivars grown in four locations (Cordoba and Mas Bové in Spain and Santarém and Elvas in Portugal).…”

Section: Chilling Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez

Pérez-López²,

Sánchez

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…[84][85][86][87] Some are based on the ensemble mean response, 92,114 but others incorporate a range of futures. 71 Those studies with a large number of model runs demonstrate overlapping uncertainty bands between ΔT g increments, as shown in Figure 5, from James et al, 91 based on four ensembles of climate models. This highlights the importance of risk assessment to establish whether there are detectable distinctions between half degree increments in spite of model uncertainty.…”

Section: Inter-model Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 90%

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

James

Washington

Schleußner

et al. 2017

WIREs Climate Change

217

190

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The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2 C and 1.5 C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5 C and 2 C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2 C with 1.5 C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways.

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“…Recently, there has been a growing concern about the effect of declining chilling on temperate woody species due to climate warming and the serious lack of mechanistic understanding of the environmental, physiological, molecular, and genetic basis of dormancy (Chuine, 2010;Atkinson et al, 2013;Campoy et al, 2013;Darbyshire et al, 2013;Pope et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

Chuine

Bonhomme

Legave

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

196

187

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The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

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Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia

Cited by 42 publications

References 47 publications

Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

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