Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez, Alfredo; Pérez-López, D.; Sánchez, Enrique; Centeno, Ana; Gómara, Íñigo; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita

doi:10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019

Cited by 37 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…It is clear that under future climates and lower overall chilling, some of these varieties will tend to migrate to other regions, depending on the regional climate conditions. The importance of variety selection for crop adaptation has been highlighted by several studies ( Soloklui et al, 2017 ; Rodriguez et al, 2019 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Fraga

Santos

2021

Front. Plant Sci.

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Air temperature plays a major role in the growth cycle of fruit trees. Chilling and forcing are two of the main mechanisms that drive temperate fruit development, namely dormancy and active plant development. Given the strong sensitivity of these crops to air temperature and the foreseeable warming under future climates, it becomes imperative to analyze climate change impacts for fruit trees. The fruit sector in Portugal has risen significantly over the last decades, gaining increasing importance both internally and through exports. The present research assesses the impacts of climate change on the chilling and forcing for economically relevant fruit trees in Portugal, namely apples, oranges, pears, and plums. To assess temperate fruit chilling and forcing conditions, the chilling portions (CP) and growing degree-hours (GDH) were computed over Portugal, for the recent-past (1989–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods, following two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future climate data were obtained from four regional-global climate model pairs to account for model uncertainties. Bias-correction methodologies were also applied. A spatial analysis over the main regions with PDO “Protected Denomination of Origin” or PDI “Protected Geographical Indication” of origin of each fruit tree was performed. Future projections show a clear decrease in chilling for all regions and fruit types in Portugal. Nonetheless, given the current chilling values in Portugal and the relative importance of chilling accumulation for each fruit type, these changes are more significant for certain varieties of apples than for other types of fruit. Regarding forcing, the future projections highlight an increase in its values throughout the different fruit tree regions in Portugal, which should lead to earlier phenological timings. These changes may bring limitations to some of the most important Portuguese temperate fruit regions. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical to control the risk of exposure to climate change, thus warranting the future sustainability of the Portuguese fruit sector, which is currently of foremost relevance to the national food security and economy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Fraga

Santos

2021

Front. Plant Sci.

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“…For deciduous fruit trees, winter chill exposure is an important precondition for dormancy release and successful spring bud burst and flowering (Campoy et al ., 2012; Jones et al ., 2015). Given this climatic requirement and the prospect of increasing temperatures due to global warming, fruit trees in many regions may soon experience – or may already be experiencing – situations where their ability to overcome their state of dormancy is compromised (Luedeling et al ., 2011a; Darbyshire et al ., 2013; Guo et al ., 2015b; Campoy et al ., 2019; Rodriguez et al ., 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia

Barrio

Fernández

Brendel

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to

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“…Delays of dormancy breaks have been reported to date for Mediterranean and Japanese settings [14,15,48,49]. For Germany, rather stable dates of dormancy fulfilment for the past years and delayed or no fulfilments for future years were reported, with dormancy break dates between DOY −20 and 20 for apple cultivars with low chilling requirements (700 Chill hours) as well as a high inter annual variability [20].…”

Section: Shifts In Phenological Phasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Drepper

Gobin

Remy³

et al. 2020

Agronomy

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Based on observations for the beginning of the flowering stage of Malus domestica (apple) and Pyrus communis (pear) for the 1950-2018 period, phenological trends in north-eastern Belgium were investigated in function of temperatures during dormancy. Moreover, two different phenological models were adapted and evaluated. Median flowering dates of apple were on average 9.5 days earlier following warm dormancy periods, and 11.5 days for pear, but the relationship between bloom date and temperature was found not to be linear, suggesting delayed fulfilment of dormancy requirements due to increased temperatures during the chilling period. After warm chilling periods, an average delay of 5.0 and 10.6 days in the occurrence date of dormancy break was predicted by the phenological models while the PLSR reveals mixed signals regarding the beginning of flowering. Our results suggest overlapping chilling and forcing processes in a transition phase. Regarding the beginning of flowering, a dynamic chill model coupled to a growing degree days estimation yielded significantly lower prediction errors (on average 5.0 days) than a continuous chill-forcing model (6.0 days), at 99% confidence level. Model performance was sensitive to the applied parametrization method and limitations for the application of both models outside the past temperature ranges became apparent.Other weather-related hazards were several light frost nights, frequent local hailstorms, and three heatwaves in 2019, an extensive drought period for more than two months in combination with a heat wave in 2018, water excess and storms in 2016, and a devastating summer storm in 2011. The consequences of extreme weather in addition to the Russian embargo on fruit imports since 2014 led the entire Belgian fruit sector into an officially recognized crisis, to the extent that federal and regional governments are preparing policies to increase resilience in the face of more frequent extreme weather events and in the context of a changing climate in general.Therefore, a better understanding is needed of the impacts of warming on phenology in the specific case of apple and pear cultivation in Flanders. By means of adapted phenological models, variations in flowering and the related frost-sensitive stage can be estimated across temporal and spatial scales, which can support decision-making regarding (new) orchard locations and cultivar selection.Following [3], the part of the growth cycle between late summer and budburst is conceptualized as dormancy period, and can be decomposed in a sequence of paradormancy, endodormancy, and ecodormancy phases. Endodormancy, i.e., 'chilling period', is induced by lower temperatures in late fall. The moment that a species' specific exposure to cold temperatures has been fulfilled, ecodormancy is induced and the accumulation of growing degree hours becomes the determining process for further phenological development [4], i.e., 'forcing period'. From then onwards, warmer temperatures favor earlier and no longer later bloom. Insolation and tem...

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Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Cited by 37 publications

References 71 publications

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

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