Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to

Temperate deciduous fruit trees survive winter temperatures by entering a dormant phase in their aerial meristematic organs. Release from bud dormancy occurs after chill requirements (CR) have been satisfied, whereas bud burst/flowering follows heat requirement (HR) fulfillment. The physiological basis behind these metrics remains elusive. In this study, we are presenting the first multidisciplinary dormancy progression analysis in northern Patagonia, linking (1) forcing/field phenology, (2) bud anatomical development, and (3) soluble sugar (sucrose, glucose, and fructose) dynamics in Juglans regia L. CR and HR were determined for ‘Chandler’ and ‘Franquette,’ two walnut cultivars with markedly different CR, in artificial chill/forced heat trials (three seasons) and in-field chill/forced heat tests (five seasons) using excised twigs either with or without apical buds (non-decapitated and decapitated). The soluble sugar dynamics of ‘Chandler’ (high-performance liquid chromatography) and the anatomical changes of the buds (light microscopy) of the two cultivars were analyzed during endo-ecodormancy progression in one and two seasons, respectively. The CR defined by artificial chill tests proved to be an overestimation compared to the field determinations. Moreover, HR was the main driver in the phenology dynamics, as expected for a high-chill region. ‘Chandler’ showed an average of 10.3 field chill portions (CP) and 2,163 Growing Degree Hours (GDH°C) less than ‘Franquette’ for dormancy release and bud burst, respectively. These results were consistent with the transition of the shoot apex from the vegetative to the reproductive phase and the soluble sugar profile. The decrease in sucrose between 15 and 30 days after CR fulfillment could be a reliable biological marker for endodormancy release in walnut, while the increase in fructose and glucose is likely an osmolyte and cellulosic carbon source in pre-sprouting. In addition, we discuss the effect of paradormancy thanks to our apical bud experiment (with or without). Our results improve the current understanding of endo-ecodormancy progression in walnut and provide insightful results for walnut production (i.e., cultivation practices such as pruning) as well as for further application in dormancy modeling, to infer the ideotypes that should be bred for future climate conditions.

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