Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model

Rosyadi, Saiful Alim; Widodo, Tri

doi:10.1080/14765284.2018.1427930

Cited by 39 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Arguably, trade reduction is more in the sectors which have comparative advantage such as textile, computer and electrical products (Guo et al, ). Rosyadi and Widodo () and Li et al () also have estimated that China will lose more than the United States from the mutual trade war in terms of GDP. For the other countries, the impact of the trade war on their economy is diverse (see Guo et al, ; Li et al, ; Robinson & Thierfelder, ; Rosyadi & Widodo, ).…”

Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rosyadi and Widodo () and Li et al () also have estimated that China will lose more than the United States from the mutual trade war in terms of GDP. For the other countries, the impact of the trade war on their economy is diverse (see Guo et al, ; Li et al, ; Robinson & Thierfelder, ; Rosyadi & Widodo, ). Salvatore and Campano () warn that the trade war could also lead to complete collapse of the post‐war international liberal trade system established under the US leadership itself.…”

Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rosyadi and Widodo () use a static GTAP model which means that tariff eliminations are effected at one point in time. They find that export trade deflection towards other trading partners is larger for China than the United States, and contrary to Donald Trump's aim to increase employment in the United States, their results suggest that the trade war may not yield a large increase in employment.…”

Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Mahadevan

Nugroho

2019

World Economy

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Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.

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Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Rcep Trade War and Trade Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Mahadevan

Nugroho

2019

World Economy

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“…Their results show that a trade war would harm most countries especially in terms of GDP and manufacturing employment, but would be beneficial in terms of welfare and trade. Differently, Rosyadi and Widodo (2018) and Shagdar and Nakajima (2018) consider the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) to explore the possible impact on the global economy of Trump's proposed tariff increase against China. These studies find that a trade war may generate a negative impact on both China and the US' GDP, whereas other countries' GDP would increase.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the impacts of Sino–US trade disruptions with a multi-regional CGE model

Cui

Sun

Melnikienė

et al. 2019

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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With the aim to explore the boundary effects of the Sino-US trade war, this study considers a multi-region CGE model to set up six trade disruption scenarios based on the severity of trade friction, and empirically examines the gains and losses for China and the US, as well as potential impacts on other countries. The results show that: (1) Sino-US trade disruptions will likely result in a loselose situation; (2) compared to agriculture, China's restriction on manufacturing imports may generate a greater negative impact on the US; (3) a trade diversion pattern is observed, indicating shrinking of bilateral trades between the two countries and increasing exports toward third trading partners; (4) although the US trade sanctions will substantially reduce the trade deficit with China, the trade deficits with other countries will likely increase. By empirically quantifying the boundary effects of Sino-US trade disruptions, this study sheds light on the negative effects of a trade war for both countries, as compared to proper negotiations. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…On the other hand, they suggest to the US, especially to President Trump, to implement a fair economic competition so that having a win-win outcome in the long-run. Rosyadi and Widodo (2018) the potential impact of the US's plan to impose import tariff increase against China based on a GTAP model. They conclude that these trade protectionism plans by Donald Trump may result in a decline in GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare both in the US and in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Potential Effects of TPP, TTIP and Trump's Tariffs on China's Competitiveness in the US Market

Özçelik

2018

EconWorld

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This paper analyses the potential effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Trans-Atlantic Trade, Investment Partnership (TTIP) and also tariff-related measures implemented by Trump administration against China's export. It examines the sectors in which China will be affected most in terms of its competitiveness in the US market against the countries included in these agreements. It also investigates whether China has significant price advantages in certain sectors and whether these agreements and tariff measures have the potential to erode those advantages. The 'quantity' and 'value' of US imports from the countries included in these agreements are used for calculating 'quantity similarity indexes' and 'price similarity indexes' in order to compare China to its competitors. Taking into account 'product heterogeneity', this paper reveals how Chinese exports will be affected by the elimination of tariff barriers within the context of these agreements and also by the increases in tariffs on Chinese products. The paper also presents policy implications for China to create its own trade and competition measures against these possible trade actions, along with the potential effects of Chinese competition on other countries in the US market. The results indicate that China is likely to be seriously and negatively affected from these prospective agreements and tariff measures. It is also likely that China will lose its price competitiveness against its main competitors in the US market, especially in such sectors as plastics, medical appliances and optical instruments. Last but not the least, the products whose tariffs are increased by the Trump administration are selected in a rational way from the viewpoint of the US, as those products are generally the ones in which TPP and TTIP are relatively ineffective.JEL codes: F10, F13, F14

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Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model

Cited by 39 publications

References 17 publications

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Exploring the impacts of Sino–US trade disruptions with a multi-regional CGE model

The Potential Effects of TPP, TTIP and Trump's Tariffs on China's Competitiveness in the US Market

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