Impact of Different ENSO Regimes on Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Chand, Savin S.; McBride, John L.; Tory, Kevin J.; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Walsh, Kevin

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00114.1

Cited by 45 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…M. Kim et al 2011;Wang et al 2013). CP warming also promotes cyclogenesis in the central southwest Pacific region (Chand et al 2013). This is attributed primarily to decreased vertical wind shear in the main region of TC genesis, forced by the anomalous teleconnection pattern closely related to CP heating.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Different Pacific Ocean Warming Decaying Types and Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Yao¹,

Zhong²,

Yang³

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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This study focuses on statistical analysis of anomalous tropical cyclone (TC) activities and the physical mechanisms behind these anomalies. Different patterns of decaying of the warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are categorized into three types: eastern Pacific warming decaying to La Niña (EPWDL), eastern Pacific warming decaying to a neutral phase (EPWDN), and a central Pacific warming decaying year (CPWD). Differences in TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) corresponding to the above three types are discussed, and possible mechanisms are proposed. For EPWDL, TC genesis shows a significant positive (negative) anomaly over the northwestern (southeastern) WNP and more TCs move westward and make landfall over the southern East Asian coast. This is attributed primarily to the combined modulation of La Niña and the warm equatorial east Indian Ocean SSTA. For EPWDN, enhanced TC genesis is observed over the northeastern WNP, and suppressed TC activity is located mainly in the zonal region extending from the Philippine Sea to the eastern WNP, close to 1608E. Most of the TCs formed over the eastern WNP experience early recurvature east of 1408E, then move northeastward; hence, fewer TCs move northwestward to make landfall over the East Asian coast. For CPWD, the enhanced TC activity appears over the western WNP. This is due to the weak anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Philippines, primarily caused by the weaker, more westward-shifting warm SSTA compared to that in the previous warming year over the central Pacific.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Different Pacific Ocean Warming Decaying Types and Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Yao¹,

Zhong²,

Yang³

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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“…Similar to their eastern Pacific counterparts, central Pacific SST anomalies also give rise to extratropical atmospheric teleconnections. A large fraction of the literature has focused on the global-scale teleconnections (e.g., Trenberth and Smith 2006), specific regions in the tropics (e.g., Taschetto et al 2010;Hill et al 2009;Chand et al 2013), or the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (e.g., DiLorenzo et al 2010;Yu and Kim 2011;Furtado et al 2012;Ding et al 2014). In contrast, relatively few studies have examined the extratropical SH teleconnections associated with central Pacific SST anomalies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teleconnections between Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Climate

2014

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Teleconnections from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) are examined using observations and reanalysis. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST anomalies is conducted separately for the central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) regions. During the austral cold season, extratropical SH atmospheric Rossby wave train patterns are observed in association with both EP and CP SST variability. The primary difference between the patterns is the westward displacement of the CP-related atmospheric anomalies, consistent with the westward elongation of CP-related convective SST required for upper-level divergence and Rossby wave generation. Consequently, CP-related patterns of SH SST, Antarctic sea ice, and temperature anomalies also exhibit a westward displacement, but otherwise, the cold season extratropical SH teleconnections are largely similar. During the warm season, however, extratropical SH teleconnections associated with tropical CP and EP SST anomalies differ substantially. EP SST variability is linked to largely zonally symmetric structures in the extratropical atmospheric circulation, which projects onto the southern annular mode (SAM), and is strongly related to the SH temperature and sea ice fields. In contrast, CP SST variability is only weakly related to the SH atmospheric circulation, temperature, or sea ice fields and no longer exhibits any clear association with the SAM. One hypothesized mechanism suggests that the relatively weak CP-related SST anomalies are not able to substantially impact the background flow of the subtropical jet and its subsequent interaction with equatorward-propagating waves associated with variability in the SAM. However, there is currently no widely established mechanism that links tropical Pacific SST anomalies to the SAM.

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“…On a broad scale, this easterly modulation is consistent with the observed effects of El Niño (Dowdy et al ., ). However, it has also been shown that this modulation could also be results of other climate drivers within the SWP region (Ramsay et al ., ; Chand et al ., ; Diamond et al ., ). For instance, Magee et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of tropical cyclogenesis and decay in the southwest Pacific

Sharma

Verdon‐Kidd

Magee

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent a significant hazard to the southwest Pacific (SWP) region, impacting on properties, lives and infrastructure, accounting for ~76% of reported disasters within the region. A particular challenge that island nations face is the inherent degree of variability in TC risk from season to season, which hampers adaptation planning due to the difficulty in predicting how many TCs will form and the subsequent areas of impact. Therefore, this study aims to assess the historical variability of TC genesis and decay (i.e., the start and end of a TC life cycle) for the SWP over the last 70 years. This is achieved through a spatio‐temporal analysis of TC Best Track Data from South Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) dataset from 1948 to 2017 for TCs that originate within 0°–35°S and 135°E–120°W. Results highlight substantial decadal variability in dominant regions of genesis and decay over the last seven decades. In particular, we observe a statistically significant displacement of TC genesis (decay) by 898 km (909 km) in an east‐northeast (east‐southeast) direction from 1948 to 2017. We also demonstrate that TCs undergoing extratropical transition have significantly decreased in terms of both frequency and duration during the last four decades, however, the length of the extratropical cyclone tracks has increased. We attribute these observations to conducive environmental conditions, including warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern region of TC genesis, sufficient moisture content (relative humidity) and favourable vertical wind shear. Further, the observed ocean warming and decreased wind shear during recent decades across the south of the SWP region favour the east‐southeasterly extension of extratropical cyclones. The findings of this study increase our understanding of decadal to multidecadal TC risk for SWP island nations and may assist in improving seasonal TC outlooks.

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Impact of Different ENSO Regimes on Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Cited by 45 publications

References 34 publications

Different Pacific Ocean Warming Decaying Types and Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Different Pacific Ocean Warming Decaying Types and Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Teleconnections between Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Climate

Decadal variability of tropical cyclogenesis and decay in the southwest Pacific

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