Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant risk to the nations and territories of the southwest Pacific (SWP). The spatio‐temporal variability of TCs makes it challenging to forecast where and when a TC is likely to develop. Therefore, the aim of this study is to better understand the link between large‐scale climatic variability, the environmental conditions required for tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), and the spatial variability of TC activity. Three modes of climate variability are investigated: (1) El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) ENSO Modoki, and (3) the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); along with TC genesis parameters: sea surface temperature; 700 hPa relative humidity; 700 hPa vorticity; and vertical wind shear (difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa winds). Our findings reaffirm the well‐established northeast/southwest modulation of TC activity according to El Niño (EN)/La Niña (LN) using an extended TC dataset (1945–2011). In addition, new insights into how ENSO Modoki and the IPO modulate TC activity according to phase and season are identified. Importantly, we show that depending on phase, the IPO can enhance or alter the spatial modulation of TC genesis during ENSO/ENSO Modoki events, in favour of the northeast/southwest modulations typical of IPO positive/negative events. This is particularly the case during the latter half of the SWP TC season. For example, EN events that occur within IPO positive (negative) epochs result in a shift of TC activity up to 1087 km (1288 km) further east (west) during February to April, compared to the typical location of TC activity during EN events. Importantly, these statistical relationships are also associated with anomalously favourable genesis parameters, providing some insights into the physical mechanisms behind the modulations. The findings of this study provide baseline metrics with which to compare climate model simulations and may also facilitate improved seasonal outlooks and better quantification of TC‐related risks for the vulnerable island nations and territories of the SWP.

Abstract. The destruction caused by tropical cyclone (TC)Pam in March 2015 is considered one of the worst natural disasters in the history of Vanuatu. It has highlighted the need for a better understanding of TC impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region. Therefore, the key aims of this study are to (i) understand local perceptions of TC activity, (ii) investigate impacts of TC activity and (iii) uncover adaptation strategies used to offset the impacts of TCs. To address these aims, a survey (with 130 participants from urban areas) was conducted across three SWP small island states (SISs): Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga (FVT). It was found that respondents generally had a high level of risk perception and awareness of TCs and the associated physical impacts, but lacked an understanding of the underlying weather conditions. Responses highlighted that current methods of adaptation generally occur at the local level, immediately prior to a TC event (preparation of property, gathering of food, finding a safe place to shelter). However higher level adaptation measures (such as the modification to building structures) may reduce vulnerability further. Finally, we discuss the potential of utilising weather-related traditional knowledge and nontraditional knowledge of empirical and climate-model-based weather forecasts to improve TC outlooks, which would ultimately reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity. Importantly, lessons learned from this study may result in the modification and/or development of existing adaptation strategies.

Variability in tropical cyclone (TC) track morphology, as it evolves post genesis, presents continued challenges in accurately forecasting TC movement. Therefore, an improved understanding of TC track climatology is essential, given that TCs are one of the most critical natural hazards in the southwest Pacific (SWP) region. We examine the historical variability of TC tracks within the SWP over the last 70 years (1948-2017) using 6-hourly track data obtained from the South Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database. A probabilistic clustering technique is applied to separate TC tracks into distinct groups in order to assess the primary cyclone trajectories for the region and its relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TC tracks are also classified into four sinuosity categories: straight, recurving, sinuous and highly sinuous; and their spatial and temporal characteristics subsequently analysed. The results of the cluster analysis identified five optimal groups of TC tracks, four of which exhibited southeast propagation, except for the southwest moving tracks in Cluster 5. Temporally, significant trends were observed over the last seven decades, with Clusters 1, 3 and 4 becoming less frequent with a substantial increase in the occurrence of Cluster 2 tracks (representing TCs east of dateline), a geometry favoured by El Niño conditions. Further, the sinuosity analysis revealed continued dominance of straight TCs within the eastern SWP with a tendency of encountering TCs of other morphology types. Conversely, the western SWP region is typically exposed to highly sinuous tracks. We also observed a significant decrease (increase) in TCs with straight and quasi-straight (highly sinuous) tracks, particularly during the last decade. These findings suggest that combined cluster analysis and TC track sinuosity analysis is an important tool in generalising the TC track regimes, refining predicted trajectories and understanding impacts on SWP island nations.

Abstract. Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) provide a spatio-temporal comparison of three TC best-track (BT) databases and explore any differences between them (and any associated implications) and (ii) investigate whether there are any spatial, temporal or statistical differences between pre-satellite (1945–1969), post-satellite (1970–2011) and post-geostationary satellite (1982–2011) era TC data given the changing observational technologies with time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0–35° S, 135° E–120° W) from 1945 to 2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), including anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity (VORT), anomalously negative vertical shear of zonal winds (VSZW), anomalously negative 700 hPa geopotential height (GPH), cyclonic (absolute) 700 hPa winds and low values of absolute vertical wind shear (EVWS). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945–1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although data from pre-satellite and pre-geostationary satellite periods are currently inadequate for investigating TC intensity, this study suggests that SPEArTC data (from 1945) may be used to investigate long-term variability of TC counts and TC genesis locations.

In the southwest Pacific (SWP) tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 76% of the regions natural disasters and have substantial economic, physical and environmental impacts on people and places. Therefore, information is needed to better understand when and where TCs are likely to occur, as this can aid in preparedness and planning. While there is a well‐established relationship between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis) in the SWP, it does not fully explain the historical spatial and temporal variability observed. Therefore, this study aims to look beyond the Pacific and establish a new relationship between Indian Ocean SST variability and SWP TC genesis. This is achieved by statistically relating indices of Indian Ocean SST variability to SWP TC genesis positions. The physical mechanisms driving these observed relationships are then established by studying changes in the environmental conditions conducive to TC genesis. This analysis shows that Indian Ocean SST variability significantly modulates the clustering of SWP TC genesis, where warmer (cooler) SSTs in the eastern and western regions of the Indian Ocean result in a statistically significant north/east (south/west) migration of TC genesis by up to 950 km. Importantly, this relationship is shown to be consistent when the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the dominant Pacific mode) is in an inactive phase (ENSO neutral). Favourable TC genesis parameters including warm SSTs, increased relative humidity, anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity, anomalously negative and low absolute 200–850 hPa vertical wind shear account for the observed shift in clustering. Furthermore, we show that the combined effect of ENSO/Indian Ocean SST variability results in varying risk profiles for island nations of the region, with the two climate modes either enhancing or suppressing individual impacts. Significantly, the findings from this study provide an opportunity for meteorological agencies to improve seasonal SWP TC outlooks.

The southwest Pacific (SWP) region is vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) related impacts which adversely affect people, infrastructure and economies across several nations and territories. Skilful TC outlooks are needed for this region, but the erratic nature of SWP TCs and the complex oceanatmosphere interactions that influence TC behaviour on seasonal timescales presents significant challenges. Here, we present a new TC outlook tool for the SWP using multivariate Poisson regression with indices of multiple climate modes. this approach provides skilful, island-scale tc count outlooks from July (four months ahead of the official TC season start in November). Monthly island-scale TC frequency outlooks are generated between July and December, enabling continuous refinement of predicted TC counts before and during a TC season. Use of this approach in conjunction with other seasonal climate guidance (including dynamical models) has implications for preparations ahead of severe weather events, resilience and risk reduction. The southwest Pacific (SWP; 0°-35°S, 135°E-120°W) is a vast region, home to a number of diverse island nations and territories that are vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. Tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 76% of disasters within the SWP region 1 , which bring extreme winds, intense storm surge, coastal inundation, and prolonged and intense rainfall that induces landslides and flooding 2-4. The relative isolation of SWP islands, their high shoreline to land area ratio 5 and the low relief of coral atolls and fringes of volcanically composed islands 6 that are occupied by people further amplifies physical impacts from TCs. In addition, slow economic growth 6 , fragile infrastructure 7 , and a dependence on subsistence farming 8-10 as a single primary industry has resulted in limited adaptive capacity and slower recovery times from TC impacts 11. On ex-tropical transition, TCs have also had significant impacts on Australia 12 and New Zealand 13. Several severe TCs have wreaked havoc in the SWP in recent decades, devastating communities, lives and economies in the region 14-16. Provision of accurate and timely seasonal TC outlooks are essential for informed decision making by Pacific Island National Meteorological Services (PINMS), disaster managers and community stakeholders. For the SWP region, three seasonal TC outlooks are currently operational: (1) one produced by the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) 17 that is distributed through the Island Climate Update 18 , (2) one from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) 19 and one produced by (3) the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) 20. The BOM provides outlooks for two regions in the SWP, the western region (142.5°E-165°E) and the eastern region (165°E-120°W). Both NIWA and the FMS provide seasonal TC outlooks covering exclusive economic zone (EEZ) scales for SWP islands. Their products are based on selecting historical (analogue) TC seasons with similar oceanic and/or atmospheric conditions leading up to a...

With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. Considerable exposure lies in the coastal regions of the WNP, which extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south, amplifying TC related impacts, including loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a new location-specific typhoon (TY) and super typhoon (STY) outlook for the WNP basin and subregions, including China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using multivariate Poisson regression and considering up to nine modes of ocean-atmospheric variability and teleconnection patterns that influence WNP TC behaviour, thousands of possible predictor model combinations are compared using an automated variable selection procedure. For each location, skillful TY and STY outlooks are generated up to 6 months before the start of the typhoon season, with rolling monthly updates enabling refinement of predicted TY and STY frequency. This unparalleled lead time allows end-users to make more informed decisions before and during the typhoon season.

Abstract. Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) examine spatial and temporal differences between the TC databases, and, (ii) investigate how changes in observational technology influence the temporal quality of TC records over time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0°–35°S, 135°E–120°W) from 1945–2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945–1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although studies on TC intensity should be limited to post-satellite/post-geostationary satellite eras only, this study suggests that SPEArTC data (from 1945) may be used to investigate long-term variability of TC counts and TC genesis locations.